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What a difference 6 hours of trading makes… 

  1. Intel (INTC) posts a blockbuster quarter, trades up +7% in the pre-market and is now only up +2.5% with TREND line resistance = $21.98
  2. SP500 (SPY) falls hard from pre-open futures indications, breaking down back below our critical long term TAIL line = 1096
  3. Volatility (VIX) continues to push higher (closed up on the day yesterday as well), trading convincingly above our long term TAIL = 23.69. 

All that said, unless 1076 is violated to the downside on a closing basis, what was immediate term TRADE line resistance last week (1076) is now immediate term TRADE support. This is the most immediate term duration in our model, but it definitely matters.

Altogether, I say respect the math from here. A break of 1076 is now flashing no downside support to 991. In other words, I’d consider the SP500 trading in an intermediate term range of 991 to 1144 probable scenario that you should manage risk towards.

Short high, cover low.

KM

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Bear Market Macro: SP500 Levels, Refreshed... - S P