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Below is a brief excerpt from complimentary research note written by our Consumer Staples analysts Howard Penney and Daniel BiolsiIf you are an institutional investor interested in accessing our research email sales@hedgeye.com

Local Grocery Benefiting From COVID-19, But Closings Pick Up - 6 11 2020 11 27 51 AM

Local grocers, as well as dollar stores, have benefited from COVID-19’s impact on grocery shopping.

The larger grocery chains have implemented shorter operating hours, often have lines to enter the store, and public transportation is less frequent. This has boosted the sales at food and beverage stores in closer proximity to customers.

Grocery spend at local grocery stores declined 4% YOY on June 6, according to Womply (CRM provider).

Sales growth broke trend since the last week of May, as seen in the chart below.

Local Grocery Benefiting From COVID-19, But Closings Pick Up - three insights 61020

However, daily grocery sales remain elevated at local grocers that are open. On June 6, sales were up 31.6% YOY, as seen in the chart below. Sales growth has generally been better than +30% since the end of March when the stockpiling/depletion occurred.

Local Grocery Benefiting From COVID-19, But Closings Pick Up - three insights 61020 2

Looking at the number of food and beverage stores that have been closed ties the two previous charts together. The percentage closed has been quite stable during April and much of May, hovering between 11% to 14%, as seen in the following chart.

The percentage of stores closed has gone up dramatically since 11% closed on May 26, to 17% on June 6.

This could be related to ongoing protests in several cities.

Local Grocery Benefiting From COVID-19, But Closings Pick Up - three insights 61020 3