When I look at the market, I don’t obviously just stare at one thing that people have FOMO on. I don’t even care about the SPYs. I haven’t traded them since 2019.
However if you look at something like Gold you can see that the volatility signal just didn’t change.
That’s what is interesting about Gold, you can’t leak insider information on it. You can’t tell me an economic narrative about a full blown recovery while looking at Gold.
Gold and its volatility just don’t care.
Quite literally, Gold Volatility (GVZ) was at 18 this morning and didn’t even move last week.
Gold moves and it’s moved multiple times. We just signaled on it for the 17th time accurately. It’s up this morning after it was at the low end of the risk range.
Investors expecting a full-blow recovery should short Treasuries and Gold.
We’ve been crystal clear on this. We have gone from a depression in Deep Quad 4 to a recession. Now that is a recovery in rate of change terms, but it is definitely not an economic recovery where GDP growth and Job growth has started to accelerate to the upside.
That point is validated by Gold being where it is today.