• Investing Insights & Exclusive Offers → Get Our FREE “Market Brief”
    Sign-up for our free weekly newsletter. Get unparalleled investing insights and exclusive Summer Sale discounts on Hedgeye research.

    Disclaimer: By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails. Use of Hedgeye and any other products available through hedgeye.com are subject to our Terms Of Service and Privacy Policy

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake. 

  • April’s consumption collapse was inclusive of unprecedented and non-recurring Social Benefit payments. A discretionary spending cratering that occurred despite millions and millions of individuals not having to make auto, credit card or mortgage payments. What happens on the other side of that?
  • Importantly, the scope of any structural damage will only take shape progressively given the potential for a temporal cascading of impacts.
  • That is, while the initial shock was concentrated among those sectors and workers with direct front line exposure (younger-workers with less education in lower-wage service industries like Leisure/Hospitality and Retail Trade), the extent to which protracted demand destruction (and the roll-off of support measures) catalyzed metastasizing job loss up the income and white-collar hierarchy – with respect to both managerial positions in those front-line sectors themselves and in sectors immediately adjacent – would take time to become evident.
  • To the extent those 2nd order labor effects do, in fact, materialize they should will only begin to manifest now and will be occurring alongside what should be fledgling improvement in the Continuing Claims data.  A shift in the distribution of job loss will be important to monitor in this morning’s NFP data.

CHART OF THE DAY: April Employment By Education Level - CoD Job Loss by Education