Malcolm Knapp has released estimates for June trends.
Knapp Track estimates for June casual dining comparable sales and traffic growth were released as -1.1% and -3.5%, respectively. For comparable sales, this represents a 60 bp sequential slowing in two-year average trends to -4.4%, the worst two-year average number since December 2009. Comparable sales as measured by Knapp Track have now declined for three straight months on a two-year average basis. For traffic, the -3.5% print implies a 20 bp slowdown in trends on a sequential basis to -5.1%, also the worst two-year average print for traffic since December 2009. Traffic growth as measured by Knapp Track has now slowed for two out of the past three months.
These estimate numbers add further weight to our conviction that casual diners are failing to stimulate guest counts. The 240 bp spread between comparable sales growth and transaction count growth confirmed that the discounting environment is in the rear view.