WYNN: Q2 WILL TELL A SIMILAR STORY

Now that we have the June Macau detail, we think Wynn Macau will beat the Street but Wynn Las Vegas will fall short.  Good thing this is essentially a Macau company.

 

 

We estimate WYNN will report Q2 revenue of $1.03BN and EBITDA of $261MM, exceeding rising consensus revenue and EBITDA numbers by 7% and 11% respectively.  Not surprisingly, we expect the beat to come from Macau and for Vegas to produce another uninspiring quarter. 

 

LAS VEGAS

 

We estimate that Wynn will report $313MM of net revenue and $62MM of EBITDA this quarter in Vegas. 

  • Net casino revenue of $132MM, non-gaming revenue of $235MM, and $45MM of promotional expenses.
  • RevPAR down 5% YoY.
  • Table drop flat with last year due to expected Baccarat share losses to MGM.  Unlike last quarter, Wynn has a more difficult hold comp.  In 1Q2010 Wynn’s tables held at 23.2% compared to 17.7% in 1Q2009.  Coupled with a 7% increase in table drop, Vegas table win produced a YoY increase of 40%.  Unfortunately, 2Q09 hold in Vegas was normal at 20.7% and therefore, we expect to see only flat to slightly down table win.
  • We project slot handle to be down around 10% YoY compared to a 27% YoY decline last quarter.  Encore opened Dec 22, 2008, so the first half of '09, especially 1Q2009, got a lot of traffic “checking out” the new product, making 1H09 a tough comp for Wynn compared to that of other strip properties.

MACAU

 

We estimate that Wynn’s Macau property will report $719MM of net revenue and $211MM of EBITDA. Good luck this quarter aided an already strong performance.

  • VIP win of $709MM.
    • We estimate $22.5BN of RC volume.
    • We estimate 14% of RC will come from direct play--up from 10% last quarter--due to Encore.
    • Hold of 3.15%.
  • Mass table win of $128MM (up 24%) and slot win of $49MM (+15%)
  • We assume rebates of $213MM (30% of win rate or 95bps) and all-in commissions of 41% vs. 39% in 1Q2010.

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more