Crude Oil: Where Is the Next Pain Trade?

08/12/08 02:20PM EDT
In the face of the Russians calling off their war planes and China's July oil imports coming in real weak, why isn't crude oil going down anymore?

At Research Edge, we believe the real edge lies in "the question" - who asks the right ones at the right times, consistently, without needing the Street to ask those questions for them.

This morning's Chinese import data (July imports down -7% year over year) is just that, July data – today is August the 12th. Since asset prices are discounting mechanisms of future news, we're going to chalk this July number up as one of the many reasons why crude oil has dropped -23% in less than a month.

I do not have a position in crude oil currently, but I finally see as much short term upside as I do downside (I have not said that in our morning meetings since June) . Call it $6-8/barrel either way. If the US Dollar Index stops going up, I may very well be on the long side of this "Trade".

KM
  • If Oil can hold $104.48, the next pain trade is UP.
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)
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