Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
Yesterday I glanced at one of the many Old Wall brokerage notes that comes either into my email box or across my Twitter contra-stream every day. I don’t waste my time reading their narrative. I was just looking at their framing of the numbers:
A) The guy was using Russell Factor Performance “+40 Days Off Major Lows”
Notwithstanding how ridiculous is it to be using a non-trending and short-term duration like 40-days (newsflash: most bear market bounces happen in 30-60 day windows; i.e. 1-2 months vs. @Hedgeye TRENDs which are 3-months or more)…
Quite literally every single year used wasn’t from THE CYCLE TOP!
I know it’s still hard for some people to grasp that the Spring Bear Market Bounces in the year 2000 and 2008 happened, but just wow on this. You have to be completely blind to Economic Cycle history to be calling 2020 something like 1998 or 2018.
But double-wow, doesn’t theorizing using random dates and durations that fit a narrative get some airtime!