Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro Analyst Christian Drake.
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China reported April Retail Sales this morning at -7.5% Y/Y. That non-V shaped improvement sits as the ghost of U.S. Consumption future (May/June) given the offset in the respective shutdowns and reopenings. We’ll get a first look at the peak salvo in COVID-19’s onslaught against domestic consumption with domestic Retail Sales for April this morning. It will be deep Quad 4. But then it will be less bad … in a better-than-April-but-still-worse-than-pretty-much-any-other-month-ever “less bad” kind of way. As we highlighted last week, the trudge toward labor market and economic re-normalization is going to be painfully longer than both the expedited drawdown and bounce in domestic financial markets, and littered with financial market chop. The shock is real, son, and the macro and profit recovery will be really real (long). |
