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The Macau Metro Monitor, July 2nd, 2010

MACAU JUNE GAMBLING REVENUE UP 65% YOY BUT DOWN 20% FROM MAY  WSJ, Macau News, Intelligence Macau

According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (GICB), June GGR rose 65% YoY but fell 20% MoM.  Analysts attribute the relatively soft number to World Cup gambling, as it takes away from gambling in casinos.  June revenue totaled MOP13.642 billion (US$1.705 billion) compared with the MOP17.1 billion recorded in May.

According to IM,  SJM kept its market share lead at 30%; Sands China had 21%; Wynn had 17%; MPEL had 13%; Galaxy had 10.7%; and MGM remained in last place at 7.5%.  IM says July is always stronger than June, though usually not quite as strong as May, and August is one of the best months of the year for both mass and VIP.

2Q EBITDA NUMBERS OFF THE CHARTS? Intelligence Macau

IM believes 2Q EBITDA will be off the charts particularly for Wynn Macau and Sands China as they take the biggest percentage of revenue gains to their bottom lines.  IM also believes 3Q will be stronger than 2Q (because of August results), with the 4Q being the strongest (biggest Golden Week of the year and December spending).

IM says SJM and Galaxy's third party casinos have the best revenue-share deals for junkets. If a commission war does break out between the concessionaires and the junkets, IM believes Wynn and Sands would be least impacted as they continue to expand their direct VIP business, which is more dependent on product (Encore and Plaza) and less on rebates.

In addition, IM thinks the bottom three operators will do well in the coming months.  CoD will post solid numbers despite its lawsuit on reclaiming US$35m from its former junket consolidator at Altira.  Galaxy will continue to grow RC volume until Galaxy Macau opens in March 2011, when it will need to adjust its mass-marketing strategy.  MGM will throw everything but its credit-conservativism (and perhaps even that) at the market as it prepares for its IPO.

NON-GAMING, ANYONE? Intelligence Macau

By moving Robuchon a Galera from the old Lisboa to Grand Lisboa's 9th and 10th floors, Grand Lisboa hopes its non-gaming facilities would drive traffic.  IM sees 3Q EBITDA gains from this transition.  Meanwhile, CoD is planning a 20,000 cubic meters nightclub and a Hard Rock Cafe, and the Venetian may be unveiling some new nightclubs.

2Q 2010 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX Government of Singapore

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released preliminary estimates that showed private residential property for 2Q rose 5.2%, compared with 5.6% in 1Q.  Based on the estimated price index of private residential property, prices rose from 175.0 points in 1Q to 184.1 points in 2Q.

The M3: JUNE GGR 65%; EBITDA AND NON-GAMING; S'PORE HOUSING 2Q RESULTS - singapore1