Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Director of Research Daryl Jones.
As painful as it was, there is no doubt that the social distancing measures put in place have slowed the spread of COVID-19 meaningfully. We’ve looked at mobility data from Google and compared it to case loads around the world (see the chart of the day) and the correlation, with a lag, is about as tight as you would expect. The question we are now experimenting with in real-time across the U.S. is: "What amount of lowered mobility is enough to keep R0 below 1?"
Not dissimilar to views of the economy, many COVID-19 “experts” have been proposing various letter shapes of how the COVID-19 pandemic will looking going forward.
Will it be a W? Will it be a L? Will it be a V? Just as very few of the experts predicted the exponential rise initially and then eventually under projected the fatalities, very few are likely to predict the next stage of the pandemic correctly either.