As the COVID-19 pandemic crisis deepens globally, the U.S.-China geo-strategic challenge grows more worrisome in parallel. What had been viewed as fringe demands for Chinese accountability and "pandemic reparations" several weeks ago are growing into a broader movement in the U.S. and Europe that threatens stability in the most critical set of relationships this century: China versus western, liberal, market-centric democracies.
Yet with so much bearish news on the geopolitical front, there are a few bullish up-ticks or green-shoots; three are apparent:
- North America: despite recent push-back from Mexico on defining and then guaranteeing "essential" elements of the supply chain, this continental scene has been the most positive of America's global relationships - a low bar, but a small "green shoot" nevertheless; Prime Minister Trudeau appears to have worked out a useful modus operandi with President Trump, while Trump has internalized the necessary G-2 to work with Mexican President Lopez Obrador.
- Turkey: President Erdogan has been trying his best over the last two weeks to placate President Trump - over COVID and the Russian S-400 air defense system recently purchased from Moscow. Further, a Putin/Erdogan-brokered cease-fire in northwestern Syria adds some more modest green shoots in the otherwise dystopian Syria scene.
- Europe: after a terrible, "each-nation-for-itself" start by the EU, there's finally a $500B -plus rescue package from Brussels, along with some relaxation of fiscal austerity rules; Germany especially has stepped forward on emergency delivery of medical supplies to southern Europe. Going forward, in what should be a helpful and timely intervention, Germany assumes the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union this summer.
One area that COULD be positive if the United States stepped in: Japan-Korea. Their historically-fueled enmity has sadly carried over into the COVID-19 era. The U.S. is in a unique position now to help bridge the gaps, especially as tensions with China intensify and alliance ties assume critical importance.
- Instead, President Trump is intent on picking a fight with South Korean President Moon over burden-sharing - a silly, ill-timed stance.
Despite the modestly optimistic signs above, challenges continue to mount in the COVID era. One of the newest to add to the geopolitical list of concerns: Israel-Palestine.
- Both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Jared Kushner last week appear to have given Prime Minister Netanyahu and his new coalition government the green light to annex nearly 25% of the West Bank after July 1st.
- If that occurs, any idea of a "two-state" solution to this decades-old conflict will sadly, even tragically, disappear. It's by now clear that this outcome has been Netanyahu's objective for over twenty years; it risks destabilizing key U.S. and Israeli ally Jordan and reversing years of progress in aligning Israeli's strategic interests with those of the Sunni Arab states in the region.
Stepping back, however, it's the U.S.-China relationship that bears the most intense scrutiny as the pandemic broadens its reach. How we manage that relationship over the next 24 months will shape global geo-strategy for the rest of the century.
