$BUD | Better Than Feared

05/08/20 01:33PM EDT

Below is a complimentary excerpt from a recent institutional research note written by our Consumer Staples analysts Howard Penney and Daniel Biolsi. If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing our research email sales@hedgeye.com

$BUD | Better Than Feared - 5 8 2020 1 44 11 PM

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) reported a $.06 more substantial loss per share than expected, but revenue trends were better than feared.

Revenue decreased by 5.8%, while volumes decreased by 9.3%. Revenue per hectoliter (hl) increased by 3.9%. Volume growth of 1.9% in the first two months of the quarter, excluding China, ended down 3.6%. China volumes decreased by 17% in April compared to -46.5% in Q1. Overall, April volumes decreased by 32%.

EBITDA decreased 13.7%, and margins contracted 330bps. US net revenues grew 1.9%, EBITDA grew 2.7%, and revenue per hl grew 3%. In the US, the growth in off-premise can largely offset the lost on-premise business, which will improve sequentially from April. This is because the US business has one of the lower on-premise channel mixes.

Revenues in Mexico grew DD%. Q2 is expected to have a larger negative impact from COVID-19 due to a third of sales in the on-premise channel. The channel mix is dramatically different by country, as seen in the chart below.

Along with Mexico, beer operations have also been shut down in South Africa and Peru.

$BUD | Better Than Feared - bud1 

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