A Note From Todd Jordan On GLL Earnings

Is it just me or has this earnings season been generally unsatisfying?

Not faulting the management teams but it seems that we learned little from the earnings releases and conference calls.

We’re kind of in limbo.

The liquidity issues have been solved and disclosed for the most part by the time earnings rolled around. 

The Q1 results and detail provided few insights into the future which is understandable - the post-Covid environment will bear little resemblance to that in Q1. Very little in gaming/lodging/leisure or travel is operational or at least operational enough to provide a read into the post-Covid world. 

One is taking a big flyer on the consumer wanting to resume traveling and having the economic capability to travel. Moreover, with not much open, one must have faith in managements’ ability to adapt to an incredibly uncertain environment. That’s the real takeaway here. 

Covid-19, and the governments’ reaction to Covid-19, is a huge shock and changes the travel landscape completely.  Management is critical right now.  If I was investing I’d probably still be net long (as I am in my PA) over the short term as the anticipation and actual announcements of re-opening the economy continues to drive the market higher. 

But as we move forward and re-opening is priced in, I’d be looking more neutral with a ton of pair trades then ultimately net short as we probably hold a more negative view of the post-reopening world for consumer stocks.  The pair trades would be based on competitive positioning during the recovery (leisure vs business travel, economy vs full service hotels, regional gaming vs the LV Strip or Locals, OTAs vs hotel brands) but also heavily based on management teams. 

There will be real standouts and laggards on the road to normalcy. It’s your time to shine management teams!

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