Let’s discuss the Russell.
The Russell had a 10% 3 day move.
First of all, that’s a huge move. Second of all, that takes the Russell 2000's drawdown to -21.8% from its 2018 peak where we went bearish.
That’s the whole thing about bear markets. They bounce. They bounce a lot more than 10% by the way. I don’t think it’s going to go up 10% from here or I wouldn’t have shorted more yesterday. When something is still down 22%, it's decisively in a bearish trend.
Now from an immediate-term trade perspective, I got the latest move wrong shorting the Russell 2000. I had the 10 prior trades in the Russell right. But, as with this latest one, I'm responsible for all of my own mistakes.
The key point this morning is: What are you going to do today in the Russell?
If I look at my immediate-term Risk Range, the Russell has 16.2% downside today and just 2% upside. So for my money, I’m short the Russell. That remains one of my top three shorts.