Continued Claims Powering Higher on Still Elevated Initial Filings

04/30/20 01:11PM EDT

Below is a complimentary research note from our analyst Josh Steiner. If you are an institutional investor interested in accessing our research email sales@hedgeye.com

Continued Claims Powering Higher on Still Elevated Initial Filings  - 04.03.2020 unemployment line cartoon

HEDGEYE FINANCIALS WEEKLY LABOR MARKET READING

Initial jobless claims (SA) recorded another 3.84 million this week, while continued Claims (SA) shot up to an all-time high of 18 million.

Given the unprecedented speed with which initial claims have manifested, our view is that the proper way to contextualize the magnitude remains to look at continued claims. Continued claims of 18 million are currently ~2.7x the previous high-water mark of ~6.6 million set during the financial crisis. What's more, the flow-through from initial claimants to continuing claimants remains significant at 49% this week.

Continued Claims Powering Higher on Still Elevated Initial Filings  - Flow

Continued unemployment insurance claims, the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 17th, 2020, were 17.99 million and 17.78 million on a seasonally-adjusted and non-adjusted basis, respectively.

Continued Claims Powering Higher on Still Elevated Initial Filings  - Continuing

Meanwhile, initial unemployment insurance claims, filed in the week ending April 24th, 2020, to indicate loss of employment in the week ending April 23rd, 2020, were 3.84 million and 3.49 million on a seasonally-adjusted and non-adjusted basis, respectively.

Continued Claims Powering Higher on Still Elevated Initial Filings  - Initial

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