Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
What does Oil trading at a negative price per barrel mean? A: 3 words and 1 number = Deep #Quad4 Deflation. That’s right, unlike some short-term-crony-marked-to-model price of a High Yield or Junk bond, that’s the free market price when:
A) Demand crashes into
Surely, the intellectual argument shall be something along the lines of this being a “one off”, or something like that. But this is the world’s deepest and most liquid component of a major asset class – one that you should have been short of in #Quad4.
The Fed’s fan club argument would be that ‘well, we didn’t do enough about that.’ That’s a counter-factual. And yes, technically speaking, we don’t know what oil and/or its volatility would have done if PE Powell started buying it…
But he didn’t buy barrels of oil… and he didn’t buy bank “stocks” either.