COVID-19 Update – Growth Remains on a Slower Path in the U.S. (4/2/2020)

04/02/20 03:14PM EDT

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on April 2nd. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts.

“Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.”
- Aristotle

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • U.S. Covid-19 case count is currently at 217,263 --- up just under 15% from our note yesterday.  The new lower growth curve is maintaining in the U.S. Now at: 226,374
  • Global cases currently sit at 965, 246, which is up ~9.0% from yesterday. Now at: 981,221
  • Broadly, European growth count is in the 5 – 10% daily growth range, though we are still seeing high daily new cases
  • Globally, the story is really about the widespread and pervasiveness of the spread with more than 50 countries at more than 1,000 “reported” cases

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U.S. SITUATION

Total tests taken in the U.S. is currently at 1,179,589, positive results are 214,039 (18.2% positive test rate), 31,501 hospitalized (14.7% of positive cases), and deaths of 4,809 (2.2% of positives)

New daily cases hit another new high in the U.S. yesterday at around 26,000 and we’ve also had the third day of lower daily tests, so the net result is that the positive test rate in the U.S. ticked higher to 18.0%

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The overall hospitalization rate continues to trend higher as the caseload increases nationally.  In part, this is likely driven by those that don’t have serious symptoms not getting tested.

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We’ve, by and large, left projections to the professionals, but three things that make us think the peak will further out than two weeks the White House is talking about: 1) positive test rate going up, 2) hospitalization going up, and 3) the percentage daily growth remaining in double digits.

In the table below, we again look at test rates and growth in the hardest hit states.  The positive is that growth rates are slowing, though most remain on a path to double every 4 or 5 days, but on the negative positive tests are increasing.

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EUROPE SITUATION

We found a chart below from the EDC that summarizes the European situation quite effectively.  Growth rate has clearly slowed, but conversely daily new cases in Europe are still near highs.

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As noted, Europe generally is growing slower than the U.S., which makes sense given more strict shutdowns, but the infection is pervasive across the continent so new case growth remains very high.

The chart below from the Financial Times looks at number of deaths since 3 daily deaths were first reported.   As you can see, Lombardia, which was the hardest hit region in Italy, still hasn’t peaked in deaths. New York state is on a more severe curve than Lombardia and more than three weeks behind.

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GLOBAL SITUATION

We appear to be on a slightly lower path of global daily new case growth. Admittedly, the higher growing regions, like India, are also likely not reporting as accurately, but clearly in the West growth rates are slowing.

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  • We will hit 1,000,000 global cases later today and will likely hit 2,000,000 in just over a week
  • China and Korea remain at very low level of new cases.  Japan is again growing at 10% day-over-day
  • India, Thailand, Turkey, Philippines are on exponential paths
  • There are currently 52 countries with more than 1,000 cases
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