Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on March 31th. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts.
“The head nurse spoke up
Said "leave this one alone"
She could tell right away
That I was bad to the bone.”
- George Thorogood, “Bad to the Bone”
- U.S. Covid-19 cases currently sit at 164,785, which is up ~16% from our report yesterday. The U.S. remains on a new lower path of doubling every 4 – 5 days (Update: Now at 175,067).
- Global confirmed cases are now at 803,033 with 39,033 deaths and 172,772 recoveries. We have seen another day of sub-10% daily growth (Update: Now at 823,479).
- In Europe the trend remains the same of lower growth rates, but still relatively high daily new cases.
- Still a bit of an uptick in China, Korea, and Japan, though mostly centered on Japan, which has been growing about 10% day-over-day.
- COVID-19 is now fairly wide-spread in most emerging markets. While the numbers remain low (not totally clear on testing protocols), the daily growth rates are high.
The U.S. remains on a new lower trend of growth. This is in large part driven by New York, which comprises just over 1/3 of national cases. On the positive, New York cases are growing slower, but conversely more than 35% of those tested in NY are positive.
The chart below looks at U.S. daily growth rate from the start of wide-spread school closings and social distancing. This is an encouraging trend.
Total tests taken in the U.S. are now at 964,865, with 163,565 positives, 22,617 hospitalizations and a positive test rate of 16.9%.
The chart below shows new cases and new tests by day. We continue to do more tests which is positive, but conversely the positive test rate is going higher. Eventually, we’d like to see tests “crush” the positives.
In the chart below, we look at the hardest hit states by number of cases. To our earlier point, U.S. growth is slowing, but in part that’s driven by NY state slowing. If you look below the hood, many of the hardest hit states continue to double every three days.
We continue to be encouraged that growth rates in the hardest hit areas in Europe are improving, but the infection remains pervasive across the continent. Currently, there are 24 nations with more than 1,000 cases. The Holy See, aka the Vatican, only has 6 cases, but has the highest number of cases per 1MM in population at 7,491.
The chart from the Financial Times looks at the current path of major European countries. Very clear flattening of the curve in Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. continues. These countries will likely be a leading indicator for when the U.S. starts to lift social distancing guidelines.
The chart below shows the new daily growth cases and daily growth going back to March 1st. On one hand, we are certainly encouraged by slowing growth as this likely suggests that shutdowns in the West are having a positive impact. Conversely, the new emerging hot spots tend to be emerging market countries with, we think it’s fair to say, less robust healthcare systems.
Japan, Korea, and China still seem very manageable, but Japan has seen a trend of 10% daily growth in new cases.
Other emerging hot spots we are watching:
- Phillipines 1,418, +343 day-over-day
- Thailand 1,524
- Indonesia 1,284
- India 1,071
- Pakistan 1,625
- Brazil 3,904
- Chile 1,909
- Ecuador 1,835
- Panama 910
- Mexico 848
- South Africa 1,280
The big challenge in analyzing emerging markets (much like China) is a lack of transparency in the data. While temperature may help some of these areas, we think it’s reasonable to assume they will get hit very hard due to inferior healthcare systems.