In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I discuss the big question that is the focus of the world's attention: the trajectory and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. If you look at total cases or deaths in RoC terms--or look at the geographic extent of the pandemic-- the news over the past week has not been good. There is no letup in the total exponential growth rates. 9 days ago, we were at 10,000 deaths outside of China. Last night we were at 38,000 deaths. Ten days from now we are on track to be over 100,000 deaths.

China is starting to recover bit by bit from its total shutdown in Feb. The official NBS manf PMI swung back up to 52.0 in March from its record low of 35.7 in Feb. The media is sure to misconstrue this as China returning back to normal. No, that's NOT what this means. Each PMI measures the share of all managers who answer better or worse to questions like "how is your production or orders or employment compared to last month?" A reading of just over 50 in the NBS means that China's big SOE factories are producing just a bit more than they did in Feb. It does NOT mean they are back to normal. 

The COVID-19 policy reaction is by far the biggest monetary and stimulus whollop the developed world has ever tried. The Obama stimulus package in 2009 amounted to 5.5% of GDP… while the CARES package just passed is scored at 9.2% of GDP. The upmoves in equity markets coincided well with these moves. Also with the decision by the EU to get rid of its circuit breakers, ECB President Christine Lagarde's decision to override earlier limits to buying member country sovereign debt, and Germany's decision to run a sizable deficit itself.

The federal add-on to state unemployment benefits of $600, basically constitutes a nationwide $20 per hour payment to be unemployed rather than employed. If it is our intended policy to maximally shut down the American economy until at least the end of July, let's declare that upfront. But surely we can set up a better system than forcing companies to lay off employees for them to get this deal.

Can the US ramshackle fiscal system actually deliver the kind of relief we're talking about in a timely manner? Banks are by nature wary of risk, but now they are being told it's all guaranteed, don’t worry about risk, just push the money out the door. This isn't their line of business. Similarly, the Small Business Administration has been put in charge of handing out $350 billion in loans. The SBA has always been known as a sleepy little agency that normally hands out less than one-tenth of that amount every year. Wish them luck...

The Spanish Flu lasted 15 months. It started in the early spring of 1918, while World War I was still raging and Germany was rolling forward into France during its Ludendorff Offensive. It eased off a bit during the summer and fall, then it raged back in its deadliest wave in the late fall of 1918 and the winter of 1919. For 2020, recall what Dr. Anthony Fauci said after hearing President Trump's proposal--which he since rescinded--to open American up for business by Easter: "You don't make the timeline." said Fauci, "The virus makes the timeline."

The smart suppression strategy will enable us to do something more intelligent than to simply turn our economy's master switch either on or off. Smart suppression starts by finding out who already has antibodies and can be presumed to be immune. It also means widespread testing, the tracking of all contacts, and enforceable self-isolation and quarantining.

Demography subscribers CLICK HERE for the audio file.

As always, please send questions or suggestions to . Yes, I do respond to all emails personally!