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Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on March 30th. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts.

“I hope, or I could not live.” 
-H.G. Wells, “The Island of Doctor Moreau”

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • From our report yesterday, COVID-29 cases in the U.S. are up about 15% to 144,672.  There is a trend of slowing daily growth in the U.S.
  • Globally, as of yesterday’s Johns Hopkins data, we also saw a decline in global growth rate to below 10%. Current global cases sit at 745,308.
    • Both points above are good signs. Weekend data has been at times spotty, but nonetheless we will be tracking these trends closely through the week.
  • The trend of slowing growth continues in Europe, but remains in double digits day-over-day.
  • Globally, we continue to see some a small uptick in Korea, Japan, and China, as well as the emergence of new hot spots.

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Daily Growth Rate is Slowing (3/30/2020) - 01.27.2020 coronavirus cartoon  5   1

U.S. SITUATION

The doubling path of cases in the U.S. has definitely slowed in the last week.  The chart below looks at U.S. daily new cases and daily growth rate going back seven days.

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Daily Growth Rate is Slowing (3/30/2020) - covid.3.30.1

Subject to more confirmation, cases in the U.S. now appear to be on a path of doubling every 4 – 5 days versus every 2 – 3 days a week ago.

As of the most recent data, the U.S. had performed 856,546 tests, 141,950 positives, 19,941 hospitalized and 2,464 deaths.  Positive test rate is 16.4%
 
The chart below looks at daily tests, new cases, and positive test rate going back to March 29. The increase in testing in recent days implies we should get a commensurate bump in new daily cases.  Alternatively, the positive test rate could drop, which would be a real positive.

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Daily Growth Rate is Slowing (3/30/2020) - covid.3.30.2

NYC continues to be a curious case for us.  If we look at the data, it suggests that on the margin that things are getting better (and hopefully they are), but, conversely, we know the positive test percentage is likely tracking close to 40% in NYC.  Realistically the overall infection rate is higher for NYC than the numbers suggest, but many of those with minimal symptoms or not-at-risk aren’t getting tested.

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Daily Growth Rate is Slowing (3/30/2020) - covid.3.30.3

EUROPEAN SITUATIOn

Although still in the double-digit daily growth range, we continue to see slightly declining growth rates in Europe’s hardest hit areas.  The data in the chart below is as of WHO’s report yesterday and is largely confirmed by the current John’s Hopkins data.

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Daily Growth Rate is Slowing (3/30/2020) - covid.3.30.4

There are now 19 countries in Europe with more than 1,000 cases and growing in double digits. The top 10 are:

  • U.K. 17,093
  • Switzerland 13,152
  • Netherlands 9,762
  • Belgium 9,134
  • Austria 8,291
  • Turkey 7,402 (most exponential growth)
  • Portugal 5,170
  • Norway 3,845
  • Sweden 3,447
  • Czechia 2,663

Rest of World

We are still seeing slightly higher numbers for China, Korea, and Japan.  Most notably is Japan, which added 194 new cases in 24 hours, which is a daily growth rate of ~12% and one of the highest we’ve seen for Japan in recent weeks.  On the whole, the numbers of new cases and new deaths remain very low for these countries.

Emerging countries to watch include:

  • Thailand 1,388, +252 day-over-day
  • India growing 30%+ per day
  • Philippines growth 25%+ per day