CHART OF THE DAY: Initial Jobless Claims vs. Consumption Growth

03/26/20 08:05AM EDT

 Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Macro analyst Christian Drake.

CHART OF THE DAY: Initial Jobless Claims vs. Consumption Growth - growth escalator cartoon 04.29.2016 1

The “interesting” offensive will only escalate as it storms the domestic labor beachhead this morning.

This has been well covered and we’ve been detailing the state-level announcements since last week but with Initial Claims set to print between 1.5-4.5 million, the job loss blitz is really all that matters, no matter how ubiquitous the coverage has been:

  • Consensus is at 1.5 million, which is probably low.
  • Regardless of where it prints exactly, the employment loss will be catastrophic and multiples of anything “since ever”.
  • At the median of the estimated range, the number of unemployed would rise by ~60% and push the Unemployment Rate up ~2 percentage points … which, again, would = the most “since ever”.
  • As the Chart of the Day illustrates, historically, when claims increases by >100K, consumption growth always slows …. and then slows again in the subsequent quarter(s).  Same for Investment.  

CHART OF THE DAY: Initial Jobless Claims vs. Consumption Growth - CoD Claims vs Consumption

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