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Editor's Note: This is a complimentary research note published by Director of Research Daryl Jones on March 18th. CLICK HERE to get daily COVID-19 analysis and alerts from our research team and access our related webcasts.

“The method of nature: who could ever analyze it?”
-Ralph Waldo Emerson

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Currently, per Johns Hopkins, global COVID-19 cases sit at 222,643 and continue to accelerate on an exponential path
  • The U.S. now has 9,415 confirmed cases versus 6,519 when we wrote yesterday. This is up 44% in less than 24 hours (Update: since writing this the U.S. is now north of 10,000)
  • There is literally no reprieve in the growth rates day-over-day in Europe with almost every major country now a hot spot (north of 1,000 cases and growing exponentially)
  • Japan, Korea, and China remain in good shape with low new case growth

 COVID-19 Update – U.S. Hits 10,000 Cases (3/19/20) - 01.27.2020 coronavirus cartoon  1

U.S. Situation

  • The U.S. is on path to hit 10,000 cases by some time later today (update: now hit).  On this path, the U.S. will likely be at 20,000 cases by early next week and seems on a path to exceed Italy in the next 10 – 14 days
  • As of yesterday at 4pm, the U.S. had performed 79,766 tests, with 8,131 positives. The positive test rate continues to run at 10%
  • New York state, which is emerging as the national epicenter, has performed 14,597 tests and 2,382 positives
    • Note: cases in NYC appear to be doubling every 24 hours (in part because of more testing)
  • No change in the view that we are in for an elongated shut down in the U.S. economy

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Hits 10,000 Cases (3/19/20) - COVID.3.19.1

Global Situation

The chart below shows the WHO data globally as of yesterday at 430pm.  We had our highest new case count globally since the start of the pandemic again yesterday.  Other than the timing issues of reporting, there is no discernable let up of growth rates

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Hits 10,000 Cases (3/19/20) - covid.3.19.2

There is no noticeable decline in growth rates in Europe, with the exception of Italy and that is marginal. The chart below looks at Italy, Germany, France and Spain over the last 7 days.  In that period total cases have grown over 100%

COVID-19 Update – U.S. Hits 10,000 Cases (3/19/20) - covid.3.19.3

Switzerland, U.K., Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark now have more than 1,000 cases

We thought this was a good read from Italy.  We aren’t trying to fear monger, but simply offer some perspective from the front lines in one of the hardest hit areas. Check HERE

Rest of World Situation

  • China, Japan, South Korea have no real change in cases
    • China 39 new cases day-over-day
    • Japan 15 new cases day-over-day
    • China 39 new cases day-over-day
  • The tracking, testing, and containment in these regions has far surpassed the Americas and Europe.  As an example, below we have pasted a message from a friend in Singapore that is sent to every citizen of Singapore daily
  • COVID-19 is now in 177 countries, or 90% of the countries on the planet

Here's the daily message Singaporeans receive. Check out the link which tells you about every case and how they are connected.

[Sent by Gov.sg]

*COVID-19: 17 Mar Update*

As of 12pm:
New cases: 23
Total cases in Singapore: 266
Discharged today: 5
Total discharged: 114
Total remaining in Hospital: 152

Of the new cases, 17 are imported cases, 2 are linked to previous cases, and 4 are currently unlinked.

Most in hospital are stable or improving. 14 are in the intensive care unit.

go.gov.sg/moh17mar