FB: Adding Facebook to Investing Ideas (Short Side)

03/19/20 12:03PM EDT

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough is adding Facebook (FB) to the short side of Investing Ideas. Below is a brief note.

We are moving Facebook (FB) to active short in the Hedgeye Communications Position Monitor (previously long bench). We see downside to 1H20 consensus growth estimates as the spread of COVID-19 weighs on global growth and pushes the U.S. deeper into #Quad4 in Q2.

We believe investors don't fully appreciate the cyclical nature of these businesses, with advertising budgets often the first to get cut in periods of weak demand. FB and GOOG represent 66%* of worldwide digital ad-spend (digital ~50%* of total ad spend) and have significant exposure to Europe and Asia ex-China. We expect both companies to report disappointing Q1 results and provide cautious Q2 guidance in the coming months.
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