Position: Short France (EWQ)
Germany’s Bundesbank raised growth forecasts for the country in its bi-annual economic outlook report today, calling for +1.9% this year (versus a previous estimate of +1.6%) and +1.4% in 2011 (versus +1.2%). For comparison, Bloomberg’s average GDP forecast for Germany is +1.8% in 2010 Y/Y and 1.7% in 2011.
We agree with the report that inflation levels will likely be moderate over the medium term, despite the Euro’s depreciation, and that exports may get a boost from a weak Euro and improving global demand.
However, we’re cautious on the contagion threats from sovereign debt default across Europe. As we’ve pointed out in our Q2 quarterly theme work, investment risk related to sovereign debt default or restructuring is not limited to Greece, but will spread to Spain, France, and Italy, much larger economies than Greece with significantly higher levels of debt exposure to European banks, especially in Germany.
Flipping to the other side of the pond, we think that growth estimates for the US, like Germany, may be lofty.
At the Federal Budget Committee hearing on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke forecast 3.5-4% GDP growth in 2011. For comparison, Bloomberg’s average GDP forecast for the US is +3.2% in 2010 Y/Y and 3.0% in 2011.
Keith wrote the following comments in response:
“So Ben Bernanke is not only forecasting a higher level of US growth than the Bloomberg consensus for 2011 but now more than a DOUBLE of the Bundesbank’s forecast for Germany in 2011!
With both pending US deficits and debt maturities demonstrably higher than Germany’s, we have a very hard time comprehending the world Bernanke sees coming in 2011. Much like our differences in forecasts versus Bernanke’s in 2008 this, unfortunately, remains a consistent divergence of analytical opinion.”
Tack on a jobless recovery that could run out of stem in 2H10 and headwinds facing the consumer coming down the pike – including housing – and it’s easy to see why Bernanke’s Bet might be a bit too aggressive.