JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL STUCK AT ~450K

Initial jobless claims remain high. The reported number dropped 3k to 456k this week, but that's after revising the prior week up by 6k. Net of this revision, claims actually rose this week by 3k. Either way, the bottom line is that claims remain in the ~450k range. Rolling claims actually climbed 2.5 to 463k week over week. Remember, we need to see initial claims fall to a sustained level of 375-400k in order for unemployment to fall meaningfully and, by extension, lenders' net charge-offs to return to normalized levels.  We remain well above that level.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL STUCK AT ~450K - rolling claims

 

Below we chart the raw claims data. 

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL STUCK AT ~450K - raw claims

 

As a reminder (as was made vivid in last Friday's jobs report), May was the peak month of Census hiring, and it should now be a headwind to jobs from here as the Census winds down.  

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL STUCK AT ~450K - census chart

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur