Below is a brief excerpt transcribed from Wednesday's edition of The Macro Show hosted by Retail analyst Brian McGough.

Stay Short Retail In 2020? - retail cartoon 05.13.2016

Overall, being short Retail in 2019 gave you approximately 1900 basis points of alpha.

I don’t know if you get that same magnitude again this year, but by any stretch as I look at the earning expectations, I think that companies are going to miss by a greater extent this year than they will next year.

Stay Short Retail In 2020? - 2 19 2020 12 00 13 PM

If you look at the holiday sales from the November to December tallies, we had a 4.5% boost in holiday sales and you still saw companies like Walmart and Target that broadly missed.

Overall you can see how the top line is slowing.You can clearly see a deceleration into January 20. Look sales aren’t falling apart, but they’re definitely slowing slowly.

I will also say that in January we got the worst number of apparel sales over the course of a 10 year time period.

Just something you’ll want to note as we continue into the year.

Stay Short Retail In 2020? - 2 19 2020 11 30 36 AM