CHART OF THE DAY: Global Economic Data → Decelerating

The biggest issue with this novel coronavirus is that it has hit at a time when global growth was already sputtering and equity markets were at all time highs. In the Chart of the Day, we’ve summarized the key global economic data points with the ones in red noted as such because the economic data is decelerating. Obviously, the story is not good. The highlights, to name a few, include:

• Japanese GDP falling -6.3% quarter-over-quarter on the back of a consumption tax, typhoons and the trade war. This was followed up with a core machine orders number that fell -12.5%;
• Germany reporting a 0.0% growth rate in Q4 GDP on Friday and then following it up a Zew Survey of confidence that missed expectations by a country mile; and
• Meanwhile in the EU generally, car sales slumped by -7.5% year-over-year, which is the worst start since 2013.

The benefit in our rate of change analysis is that eventually bad data morphs into easy comps, which can lead to economies accelerating on a rate of change basis and shifting us into Quads that are more favorable to equity returns and general risk taking.