• [WEBCAST] Raoul Pal & Neil Howe: A Sobering U.S. Economic Reality Check

    Prepare your portfolio for “big picture” paradigm shifts with Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and Demography analyst Neil Howe. Watch the replay from this webcast.

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

CHART OF THE DAY: Late Cycle ≠ End-Of-Cycle - late cycle grim reaper 10.31.2016  2

If you could time bull market tops and bear market bottoms, you would. But the reality is we can’t expect to do so with any consistency or specificity – if only because every cycle is different. There’s nothing you can learn about prior cycles that will give you pinpoint precision on precisely when to head for the exits in the current cycle.

Moreover, even the world’s most experienced investors know absolutely nothing about the future. Remember, most investors’ conviction levels are most highly correlated with the quality of the narratives they’ve concocted in their head, rather than the rising or falling probabilities of fundamental outcomes.

Again, if you could time markets, you would. And just because we can’t promise perfection doesn’t absolve us from doing our jobs as macro strategists, active managers, investment advisors, asset allocators, etc. We’re all #blessed with an opportunity to earn our respective fees each morning. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Late Cycle ≠ End-Of-Cycle - Slide 130