SCARY MACRO CHART FRIDAY

Personal consumption expenditures have been a rocket ship over the past 20 years. Gaming revenue growth has been even more impressive. Gambling spend accelerated from 0.3% of PCE in 1990 to a peak of 0.94% in December, 2006. The trend broke soon after that all the way down to 0.79% in June of 2008. As a point of reference, if gambling reverts to the mean since 1990 of 0.6%, revenues would fall by $20bn annually or 25% of the current level. This trend could be a double whammy in a consumer slowdown.

Gambling % of PCE rolling over