No impact from oil spill and impact may turn out to be a positive. This isn’t an original call today; but earnings visibility is good, management continues to do the right things, and the stock has gotten creamed.



PNK management is making sure people know that the impact from the Gulf oil spill is nonexistent and could actually turn out to be a a positive if the relief workers gamble as they have in the past.  This clears up the near-term earnings picture which we had thought was good, prior to the BP disaster.  Meanwhile, the stock is off 24% from its recent high only one month ago and now trades at 6.5x 2011 EBITDA.


Aside from chronic unemployment, the only negative to the story, at least relative to initial expectations, is the April performance of River City (RC).  RC generated only $13 million in gaming revenues in April after putting up a solid $15.9 million in March.  We expect RC to rebound somewhat in May and build from there.  However, we have taken our numbers down to reflect a slower ramp.


Despite lower projections for RC, we remain above the Street in company EBITDA.  For 2010 we are projecting $206 million in EBITDA versus the Street at $203 million.  Since we wrote our note “PNK: ANOTHER CALL FOR HIGHER ESTIMATES” in late April, the Street has come up from its $192 million. Margins remain the story on EBITDA.  The removal of Dan Lee expenses in corporate and the sustainable cost cutting and rationalization generated in Q1, especially in the marketing area, provide visibility and maybe upside to current estimates.

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more