CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Believe In Full Cycle Investing?

What did the market believe you should be Long in #Quad4 last week:

1. Long Treasuries, across The Curve, with both the UST 2 and 10yr Yield down -18 basis points last week
2. Long Gold which was up another +0.6% last week taking its Full Cycle Investing return (from Q3 of 2018) to +32.1%
3. Long Utilities (XLU) which were +0.9% last week taking their Full Cycle Investing return to +34.6%

Do you believe in Full Cycle Investing? Since I made that up, you’d have to believe me and my teammates on that. I only believe in that because both the economic data and market returns do.

If you’re up +32-35% in Gold and/or Utilities since The US Cycle peaked in Q3 of 2018, you believe Old Wall draw-downs of your hard earned capital can’t hurt all of your capital too.

The alternative belief system was to buy something like “Small Caps” which were not only down -2.9% last week (Russell 2000) but are down for 5 of the last 6 weeks and down -7.2% over the same Full Cycle Investing period (Q318-Q120).