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ISLE 4Q/FY 2010 CONF CALL NOTES

ISLE 4Q/FY 2010 CONF CALL NOTES

 

 

"While we believe the economic condition of our customers improved as the fiscal year progressed, we believe the effect of an economic recovery on the gaming business will be slow and steady. As a result, we continue to trim costs where possible, improve our marketing efforts and elevate the guest experience to improve the competitive positioning of each of our properties."

- Virginia McDowell, President and COO

 

GUIDANCE

  • Depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $85 million to $87 million.
  • The Company expects cash income taxes pertaining to FY 2011 operations to be less than $5 million which primarily represents state income taxes.
  • Interest expense is expected to be approximately $89 million to $92 million, net of capitalized interest.
  • Total Corporate expenses for FY 2011 are expected to be approximately $46 million including approximately $8.5 million in non-cash stock compensation expense.
  • Maintenance capital expenditures for FY 2011 are expected to be approximately $45 million to $48 million, including conversion of approximately 2,500 slot machines to the Bally's slot system technology.

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Retail sales increased sequentially in 5 of the casinos
  • Little visibility of economic recovery
  • Adjusted EPS is 24 cents/share vs. 18 cents/share in 4Q FY 2009
  • Strive to bring cash level down from $90 MM to current levels
  • 6.9x leverage ratio
  • $110MM available in credit facility before busting a covenant; 300 MM undrawn
  • $6 MM capex in 4Q 2010

Q&A

  • Tax rollback in Pompano, FL- goes down by 15%
  • $400MM swapped out debt - most expires at end of 2011 with one long-term expiring at end of 2011
  • Station auction participation?
    • No
  • Florida properties:
    • have introduced penny slots in recent years
    • will take a couple of million dollars to reinvest in marketing program - to reintroduce customers to property
  • Gaming in Texas?  Thinks nothing happens until 2011.  Racino is a more likely possibility than a full-fledged casino.
  • Ameristar Black Hawk ramping:
    • doesn't think Riveria has any impact on Ameristar
    • hotel occupancy stabilized in Black Hawk.... retail expansion have driven customers to Ameristar
  • Rainbow
    • will rebrand to Lady Luck; will cost a couple of million
  • 35% effective tax rate in Florida - could be marginally higher.
  • Like the current cash level of $68MM-- though $75 MM is normal run rate.
  • Promotion environment:
    • facing pressure in Lake Charles
    • Biloxi--highly promotional environment
    • Quad cities-- tough as well
  • Depreciation decline forecast for 2011:
    • Assets getting to end of useful life; Pompano and Waterloo assets, specifically.
  • Stock compensation in 4Q 2010: $1.7 MM
  • South Florida economy seemed to have recovered: direct competition with Sugar Creek;
    • menu changes at many of the restaurants and television campaigns driving retail sales.
    • customer confidence improving "a little"
  • Credit amendment:
    • ISLE can invest in private equity projects that can leverage management fees
  • Quarterly interest coverage:
    • How close to covenant?
      • leverage: 6.9x; covenant is 7.5x.
  • Biloxi oil spill effect?
    • Nothing yet
    • BP marketing campaign to increase tourism in gulf coast area
    • Postponed the property's biggest event-- Bill Fish Tournament--to August; if oil spill doesn't improve, may cancel this event
  • Discontinued operations?
    • A little from Europe and a little from Bahamas in FY 2010
    • In FY 2011, discontinued operations will involve a little of Blue Chip from Europe
  • Davenport license:
    • nothing substantive has occurred
    • would be compensated for losing the contract if ISLE sells its property
  • Missouri 13th license:
    • interested but need to know more details
  • Gaming visitation trends:
    • For full year, visitation increased 3%; 4Q 2010 visitation is down slightly YoY.

SHORTING US HOUSING

Housing Continues to Stumble ... Fade Any Strength from Today's Pending Home Sales Print

 

We've been beating the drum that home sales post the tax credit expiration would be anemic. This morning we get further confirmation. The MBA Mortgage Purchase Application Index, a leading indicator for home sales activity, continued its slide. The index declined 4.1% from last week bringing the decline since April to 28.8%. The decline for the entire month of May is 18% vs the month of April. The last two weeks of data have represented the lowest level of purchase activity since April 1997. For reference, the conforming 30-Year fixed mortgage rate in April 1997 was 8.14%. The rate averaged 4.95% in May 2010. Imagine what purchase activity would look like today without a 4-handle on the 30-year mortgage.

 

SHORTING US HOUSING - j1

 

 

Yesterday the Mortgage Insurance industry association, MICA, released its monthly data for April. Two months ago the improvement in the cures/defaults ratio got investors extremely bullish on the mortgage insurers and housing in general. There was an underappreciated degree of seasonality tailwind embedded in the February data. From this point going forward we'll be on the back side of that tailwind. In other words, it's going to be a headwind from here.

 

SHORTING US HOUSING - j2

 

 

One caveat of note. Later this morning we'll get pending home sales, which should be quite strong, possibly extremely strong. April saw a tremendous amount of demand pull forward ahead of the tax credit expiration and this morning's pending home sales data for April should reflect that. This is a lagging indicator, however, so we would be sellers of any pending home sales-related strength.

 

As a reminder, here are the banks most exposed to residential real estate as a percentage of their loan portfolio. These percentages include residential first lien, second lien, HELOC and 1-4 construction loans.

 

SHORTING US HOUSING - j3

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Allison Kaptur

 


Chinese Ox Still Boxed In

Unveiled in early January, our Chinese Ox in a Box 1Q10 theme called for an economic slowdown in China. We seen just that in the equity markets, reflected by the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng posting YTD declines of -22% and -11%, respectively. Much of the negative equity performance has been the result of government tightening to dampen inflation pressures and cool an overheating property market, which, for the most part, have been priced in. Still, concerns regarding the Eurozone’s fiscal and debt crisis, a domestic property bubble on the verge of rapid collapse, domestic wage issues, and international pressure are negatively impacting growth outlooks even beyond what we’ve seen in the numbers thus far. If yesterday’s PMI release was any indication (alongside copper breaching its long term TAIL line of support $3.03/lb), the Chinese Ox could very well be boxed in for quite some time going forward.

 

Below is a quick summary of recent developments from the last week which are additive to the current bear case for China. While we certainly aren’t recommending you join the “short everything China” trade now, we do think the latest developments out of China suggest further downside risk.

 

 

5/25 – More tightening in the property market:

  • Shanghai to introduce property tax trial next month
    • Estimates of an annual tax of 1.5%
    • Prices for new homes dropped 16% in Shanghai for the week ended May 23rd
  • Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties said residential real estate prices in the mainland could fall by 20% - 30%  from current levels
    • Real estate investment is 12% of Chinese GDP at most recent readings

5/27 – Liquidity drying up:

  • China’s benchmark money-market rate rose 24bps to 2.4% - the highest levels since Feb. 12th
    • Prompted China to offer higher yields on short term bills @ auction (up 4bps to 1.49%)

5/28 – Domestic investors seeking returns forced to chase IPOs, which are now in a bubble:

  • Chinese IPOs beating Chinese benchmark indices by an average of 33 points in their first month of trading – best in the world YTD
    • Chinese IPOs raised $25B YTD due to many Chinese individuals being restricted from Int’l markets
    • P/E of Chinese IPOs: 46x vs. Shanghai Composite (16x) vs. Shenzhen-listed securities (23x)
    • Chinese IPOs gained an average of 32% in the first month of trading

6/1 – PMI slowing sequentially; property development and transactions eroding sequentially; domestic consumption slowing sequentially; battle over wages continue; China continues to get called out for “cheating”; and China increases its efforts to add liquidity to a financial system that has been drying on the heels of tightening in the property market and news out of the Eurozone:

  • PMI 53.9 in May vs. 55.7 in April vs. 54.5 consensus
  • HSBC PMI 52.7 in May – the lowest in a year
    • HSBC Index more weighted toward smaller, privately-owned businesses (400 manufacturing companies)
  • PMI components            
    • Output 58.2 in May vs. 59.1 in April
    • New Orders 54.8 in May vs. 59.3 in April
    • Export Orders 53.8 in May vs. 72.6 in April
    • Input Price Index 58.9 in May vs. 72.6 in April
  • Official PMI typically declines sequentially in May (3 of last  4 years) – seasonal adjustment factor off?
  • Property sales falling sequentially in May (M/M)
    • Beijing down roughly 70%
    • Shanghai around 70%
    • Shenzhen near 62%
  • Developers are postponing project launch dates and are waiting to see market developments and government policies before launching new projects
    • Shanghai – only 46 of a scheduled 96 developments were put on sale in May
  • Transactions for new homes in Shanghai fell 56% for the month through May 16 (M/M)
  • Secondhand home transactions in Beijing down 70% M/M in May
  • Hong Kong retail sales down sequentially to up 16.8% Y/Y in April vs. up 19% Y/Y in March
    • Retail sales volume down sequentially to up 12.4% in April vs. up 17.3% in March
    • Visitation up 18% Y/Y in April (1.7M)
  • Passenger car sales down sequentially - up 25% Y/Y in May vs.  Up 34% Y/Y in April
    • Has risen each month since Feb 2009 after gov’t lowered the tax on small vehicles to 5% from 10% in Jan. of ‘09
      • The tax was increased by 250bps this year to 7.5%
    • May 2010 is the most sluggish pace of growth since March 2009
    • Stockpile of vehicles up sequentially by 64,900 units in May
  • Honda Motor Co. production in China will remain halted at least through June 3rd as striking workers rejected a 24% pay increase to 1,910 yuan per month (looking for 2,000-2,500 per month)
    • Production of up to 3,000 cars per day has been lost since its auto assembly factories shut down last week
      • May 17 – plant in Foshan, Guangdong closed
      • May 24 – 2 plants closed in Guangzhou, Guangdong
      • May 26 – 2 plants in Guangzhou and Wuhau, Hubei
    • First time a strike has stopped Honda’s local auto production
    • Scuffles broke out between workers and staff from the government-backed trade union yesterday
      • Some workers sent to the hospital for treatment
  • Trade unions and employers appear to be reporting a growing number of work stoppages in China, although there are no official numbers, according to the International Labor Organization in Beijing
    • Hon Hai Group (assembler of iPhones) said last week it may raise wages 20% amidst a probe into the companies working conditions after the deaths of 10 people this year at their Shenzhen factory
      • Police treating as suicides
  • John Clarke, Head of EU delegation to WTO said today that “China uses a weak currency, export incentives, and subsidies to bolster its economy”… “the EU has seen some worrisome signals of stagnation in China’s efforts to revamp its economy”… “[EU] companies have reported a worsening of the [Chinese] business climate”
    • China March trade to EU up 25% Y/Y ($21.45B) – setting up for reported figures to slow sequentially in April and May
    • EU is largest recipient of Chinese exports in March (19.1%) vs. US (17.2%)
  • WTO judges are probing complaints by the EU, US, and Mexico against Chinese restrictions on exports of raw materials
    • Duties on coke, zinc, bauxite, magnesium, manganese, silicon carbide, yellow phosphorus
      • Used in steel, aluminum, automotive, and chemicals production
    • China claims taxes aimed at easing overproduction and pollution
    • WTO remarked that “export restraints tend to reduce export volumes of the targeted products and direct supplies to the domestic market, leading to downward pressure on the domestic prices of these products”
  • China’s Central Bank sold 1Y bills at 2.0096% vs. 1.9264% last week
    • Sold 15B yuan of 1Y bills
  • China’s Central Bank also raised rates on 3-month bills for second straight auction on May 27
  • China has added a net 145B yuan of cash into the financial system last week – the 2nd weekly injection of the last month after draining cash each week in April and March

6/2: Employers giving in to wage demands; liquidity drying up further; China may finally address restrictive residential system that has been marginally inhibiting to growth – a sign that the government may begin to pull out all the stops to avoid a full economic collapse:

  • Honda reopened a parts plant in China
    • Most of the parts factory’s 1,900 workers accepted an offer this week for a pay raise to 1,910 yuan ($280) a month (24%)
  • Hon Hai Group will raise worker salaries at least 30% after series of suicides
    • Workers with a monthly wage of 900 yuan per month will be paid 1,200 yuan effective immediately
  • 7-day repurchase rate rose 8bps to 3.28% - the highest since Oct. 2008 (19 month high) vs. 1.56% (12/31/09) vs. 0.96% (6/1/09)
  • Bank of China Ltd. (third largest lender by market value) started selling convertible bonds today
    • Plans to raise 40B yuan ($5.9B) according to a May 30 statement
  • China may gradually implement a residence permit system in 10 cities that may relax the Hukou rules, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited a State Council document

Chinese Ox Still Boxed In - SSEC

 


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

CASUAL DINING – THE SQUATTERS’ INCOME IMPACT

The balance of the year could prove difficult from a cost perspective.  The consumer comeback that casual dining management teams have touted may also be running on fumes.

 

Casual dining sales slowed in April and we are hearing that May’s numbers are not showing stronger trends.  Officially in April, the Malcolm Knapp data showed that two-year trends slowed sequentially from March. 

 

The trends in April and May suggest that the rate of change in improvement in sales trends is slowing just when the industry needs it most.  As you will see in the following charts, the industry benefited from declining food prices in 2009.  Labor costs were also somewhat benign as turnover rates slowed in the recession.

 

As we get closer to the outlook for 2011 (Q2/Q3 conference calls), higher food costs will dominate the headlines.  In addition, if the jobs picture really improves it’s only a matter of time before we hear about higher labor costs.  In an economy that is creating jobs, there is an increased incentive to quit and walk away from a lower-paying job (think restaurant server/cooks) increases and the restaurant industry will pay the price. 

 

There is also a case to be made that the improvement we have seen in sales trends is somewhat artificial, or said another way, it’s the SQUATTERS’ INCOME impact.  A New York Times article entitled “Owners Stop Paying Mortgages, and Stop Fretting” details just one example of unsustainable consumer spending patterns.  The article describes how for some homeowners that chose to halt mortgage payments, foreclosure has allowed them to “stabilize the family business.  Go to Outback occasionally for a steak.  Take their gas-guzzling airboat out for the weekend.  Visit the Hard Rock Casino.”  One individual stated, “instead of the house dragging us down, it’s become a life raft. It’s really been a blessing.”

 

Additionally, as our Hedgeye Risk Management BLACKBOOK on the consumer (released yesterday) illustrates, the consumer is facing a myriad of other headwinds.  For a copy of this BLACKBOOK, please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

From a cost perspective, restaurant companies face difficult comparisons over the next few quarters.  As the first chart below shows, average food costs as a percentage of sales for casual dining decreased significantly through the first three quarters of 2009.  While the first quarter saw further year-over-decline in food cost margin, the compares become increasingly difficult through the third quarter.  Some restaurant companies have indicated that costs have been trending higher than was expected at the outset of the year.  Two components that were cited specifically by management teams during the recent earnings calls were alcohol (MSSR) and chicken (RT).

 

While most companies are under long-term contracts for beef, as new contracts are negotiated, nearly every company will be paying higher prices in 2011.

 

Some companies that are looking vulnerable coming into the 2Q earnings season are CAKE, RT, TXRH and to a lesser extent DRI. 

 

CASUAL DINING – THE SQUATTERS’ INCOME IMPACT - cd food costs   sales

 

In terms of labor costs, 2Q will likely bring significant labor cost year-over-year growth to the casual dining space.  Many companies saw year-over-year labor cost inflation in 1Q10.  DRI, PFCB, KONA, and RRGB had labor costs jump 95 bps, 116 bps, 133 bps, and 137 bps, respectively.  MRT saw deflation of 123 bps in labor costs.

 

CASUAL DINING – THE SQUATTERS’ INCOME IMPACT - cd labor costs

 

Examining the EBIT margin trends in casual dining paints a vivid picture; the category is facing increasingly difficult margin compares for the rest of the year.  1Q10 was the last easy comp and many companies operating at peak margins will find it difficult to sustain those levels.  Those that jump out for me include CAKE, MRT, and TXRH. 

 

CASUAL DINING – THE SQUATTERS’ INCOME IMPACT - cd ebit margin

 

CASUAL DINING – THE SQUATTERS’ INCOME IMPACT - food cost margins cd names

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director


THE M3: MBS TO EXCEED ESTIMATES; MAY GGR 17BN MOP; NO HIRING OF FOREIGN WORKERS;

The Macau Metro Monitor, June 2nd, 2010

 

LAS VEGAS SANDS SAYS SINGAPORE SITE TO TOP ESTIMATES Bloomberg

In an interview last week, COO Michael Leven said, "about 550,000 people visited MBS in the first 25 days of May, with ~25% of the resort open to the public."  The casino is winning “slightly more” on mass-market gambling than on VIP play since opening April 27, he said.  He believes at the current run rate, adding only improvements to the hotel, MBS will exceed the 2010 EBITDA of $329 million on the Street.  About 1/3 of MBS's visitors are Singaporeans.

 

Leven characterized Genting as a "very formidable casino competitor."  He said, “They know the market better than we knew the market on the mass-play side, because they operate in Malaysia and our operations in Macau are very different.”  Furthermore, Leven mentioned the lowering of food and parking prices as part of a mass market marketing plan.

 

According to Leven, Sands is "somewhat disappointed" at its slot win at MBS; the company has ordered popular electronic rapid roulette and mini-baccarat games to compete with Genting.

 

A NEW GAMING RECORD SET macaubusiness.com

Macau gross gaming revenues soared to MOP17 billion in May (~95% YoY), the highest monthly revenue ever recorded in the territory, according to Portuguese news agency, Lusa.  From January to May, GGR totaled MOP72.2 billion, an increase of ~ 70 percent YoY.

 

SJM continued to be the leader with market share slightly above 32%; LVS had a 20% share; WYNN had a 16% share; MPEL had a 14% share; Galaxy had a slightly above 11% share; and MGM had a slightly above 7% share.  

 

OFWs TOLD TO DELAY MACAU TRIP Manila Bulletin

Labor Secretary Marianito Roque advised Filipinos to delay finding employment in Macau because of the new imported labor law.  “Filipino workers should be wary especially against unscrupulous individuals or agencies who may entice or bring them to Macau because at the moment there is no hiring of foreign workers,’’ he added.

 

Based on POEA data, a total of 6,729 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) were deployed to Macau in 2009, most of them employed in the tourism sector.


GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT FIRST QUARTER RESULTS CALL NOTES

GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT FIRST QUARTER RESULTS CALL NOTES

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE RELEASE

  • "The first quarter of the year is historically strong due to the seasonal impact of Chinese New Year. Surprisingly the second quarter has posted a record performance for April and the outlook for the full year remains promising."
  • GEG EBITDA increased 79% y-o-y to HK$417MM on revenue growth of 51% to HK$3.95BN
  • Starworld EBITDA increased 81% y-o-y to HK$369MM on record VIP turnover of HK$102BN (up 86% y-o-y)
    • EBITDA margin for the quarter was 11% compared to 10% in Q109 or approximately 18% compared to 16% in Q109 under the US GAAP calculation
  • City Clubs casinos contributed HK$30MM in 1Q2010
  • Construction materials earned HK$285MM of revenues and HK$68MM of EBITDA up 51% y-o-y.  The improvement in results reflects a strategic shift to a number of new Joint Ventures in Mainland China.
  • Galaxy Macau still on schedule and on budget to open early 2011.

CONF CALL NOTES

  • Sentiment in Asia is very positive and that positive sentiment is driving spending growth
  • Had 2.9% hold compared to 3.1% in 4Q09
  • Shifted the business mix of construction business to higher margin products. Don't report revenue from minority partnerships but do report EBITDA. Hence the decline in revenue but increase in EBITDA
  • Invested a little over HK$5BN through 1Q2010 on Galaxy Macau

Q&A

  • Early 2011 means 1Q2011 for the Galaxy Macau opening
  • $50-60MM corporate expense guidance going forward increasing somewhat going into the opening of Galaxy Macau
  • Increased their margins due to mix within VIP and more efficient scheduled, despite lower hold this Q
  • Had 242 tables, opened 2 more rooms this quarter and shifted more tables to VIP 130 from 110 and had 95 Mass tables from 110 last quarter.  Balance is premium direct business play. VIP only increased a little because the shift occurred mid quarter. Expect more visible benefit next quarter
  • Encore opening has actually helped the Peninsula and they haven't felt any negative impact from it
  • Feel confident that they profitable operate on Cotai given the growth in the market and the latent demand. Also infrastructure improvements coming over the next few months (increase in Guanbau gate capacity and airport, construction of high speed rail there as well)
  • Very conservative on extending working capital to their junkets.  They have increased it modestly but not relative to the volume growth
  • Anything special driving the surge in gaming revenues - especially in May?
    • Doesn't feel like there is a recession in Asia - economy is solid and improving and that's reflected in people's comfort in spending more
    • Increase in RMB flows buying the HKD

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