Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
To review:A) US economic data continued to slow at a faster rate (i.e. #Quad3 took our US GDP Nowcast to 0.06% for Q419)B) The US Dollar went straight down from it’s Global #Quad4 Cycle highs in December C) Oil and Energy Stocks beat any major asset allocation you could have been long of vs. the crowd Nope, nothing on Iran, WWIII, or Coronavirus happened in December either. And I didn’t hear a peep from the fundamentalists on that Oil/Energy ramp in December either… because… consensus hates Energy as much as our process hated their MLP Long exposures before many of those Hedgeye Energy Shorts went to zero (see 2016 for details). But I’ll hear plenty of peeps and tweets today. And I should. If fundamental supply and demand is all that one does (even though our OPEC supply cut call from our Energy Policy team is bullish for Oil), maybe they should be shorting Oil and Energy this morning? I don’t know how they really think (I don’t run their models and haven’t back-tested their process) and, no offense, but I really don’t care. |
