CLICK HERE FOR RECESSIONS INDICATORS UPDATE
Note: Our new update adds a new pair of indicators: Index of Average Weekly Hours: Total Private (Ch. 66) and Index Average Weekly Hours Less Working Age Pop. Growth.(Ch. 67). By adjusting for secular changes in demographic growth over time, the second of these indicators transforms total weekly hours into a reliable and consistent indicator over time. This new indicator shows the sort of activity slowdowns that typically precede recessions. So we have included it in our list of best medium-term indicators (see charts 114 and 119). BTW, this indicator has been on a slowing trend since mid-2017 and is now listed as "close to triggering."
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What’s New Since Dec 20, 2019:
- SUMMARY:
- Indicator changes were mixed over the past month. Positive news: jump in housing starts, in retail sales ex food, and in the S&P; and the largest expansion in ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in four months. Mixed news: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 145K, yet it was the smallest rise since May. Negative news: continued weakness in industrial sectors; a drop in consumer expectations; and a further decline in the CB LEI.
- IMPROVED:
- Advance Retail Sales Ex Food Services YoY (Ch. 21) rose from 3.15% in NOV to 5.96% in DEC; expectations beat.
- Housing Starts, New Private Units YoY (Ch. 28) increased from 173K in NOV to 466k in DEC; expectations beat.
- Philadelphia Fed Manf Index (Ch. 47) rose from 2.4 in DEC to 17 in JAN; expectations beat.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Ch. 39) rose from 53.9 in NOV to 55.2 in DEC; expectations beat.
- Manufacturers' New Orders for Consumer Goods^ YoY (Ch. 23) rose from -2.06% in OCT to 0.60% in NOV; expectations beat.
- Initial Unemployment Claims 4-Week Average+* (Ch. 56) fell from 224 at the start of JAN to 216.3 a week later.
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S&P 500 Index YoY (Ch. 97) rose from 13.8% in NOV to 28.8% in DEC.
- MIXED:
- Nonfarm Payroll (Ch. 57) increased by 145 thousand in DEC, smallest rise since May; expectations failed.
- WORSENED:
- Industrial Production Index^+ YoY (Ch14) fell from -0.68% in NOV to -1.01% in DEC.
- Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods* YoY (Ch. 26) fell from -1.24% in OCT to -3.84% in NOV; expectations failed.
- Housing Permits, New Authorized* YoY (Ch. 29) fell from 140K in Nov to 77K in Dec.
- Chicago Fed Midwest Economy Index+ (Ch. 52) fell from -0.31 in OCT to -0.39 in NOV.
- ISM Manf PMI (Ch. 40) fell from 48.1 in NOV to 47.2 in DEC, expectations failed.
- ISM Manf PMI New Orders* (Ch. 41) fell from 47.2 in NOV to 46.8 in DEC; expectations failed.
- CB Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations*+ (Ch. 83) dropped from 100.3 in NOV to 97.4 in DEC.
- CB US Leading Economic Indicators Index*+ YoY (Ch.94) dropped from 0.2 in OCT to 0.1 in NOV.
- FAVORITE INDICATORS: STATUS CHANGE (Ch. 117):
- Industrial Production Manufacturing^+ YoY (Ch. 15): Medium-Term, change from "All Clear" to "Close To Triggering."
FOOTNOTES
* A Conference Board Leading Indicator
+ One of Our Favorite Indicators
^ A “Big Four” Indicator
