The death of Quds leader Qasem Suleimani was a game-changer - for a U.S.-Iran relationship that has undergone multiple game changes in the 41 years since the 1979 revolution. Clearly his death was a major setback for Iran's Supreme Leader; combined with the death at the same time of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis (the "Engineer"), an Iranian-supported para-military leader in Iraq, Iran's ability to expand its Shia proxies operating throughout Tehran's "near aboard" has suffered.
- Iran may be restrained over the near-term by a now-clear U.S. red-line, but don’t expect Iran’s proxies to feel that same sense of moderation – especially those based in Iraq and led formerly by Muhandis.
- Hence, robust U.S. business security enhancements for personnel and infrastructure in the region clearly remain warranted, for months if not years into the future
In the wake of the targeted assassinations and the initial Iranian follow-up, of course, was the shoot-down by Iran of the Ukrainian airliner. It demonstrated yet again how a single event in this region can quickly change international narratives. A former U.S. Ambassador to the region confided last week that one of the most significant implications of this tragedy may well be the pictures streaming back to Iran of the Canadian-Iranian women killed in the crash - pictures that showed them unveiled and elegantly dressed, in stark contrast to expected norms in the Islamic Republic. This has already fed into the growing unrest now directed at the ruling regime, not the U.S. and Israel.
- But while the growing domestic unrest has to be worrisome for the clerics, will it be “regime changing?” No. As Tom Friedman wrote a year ago in the NYT, "Bang-Bang" still beats "Tweet-Tweet." The regime will murder thousands if necessary to maintain control while they wait for the results of the November 2020 U.S. elections and hope for a different president with whom they can bargain for sanctions relief.
One final aside on an additional regional issue: President Trump's call to expand NATO to include some Middle East countries! The fact that this has garnered little attention reflects how silly and quixotic the idea really is.
- Recall, two years ago Trump tried to build support in the region for a NATO-style security pact just for the region, dubbed MESA (Middle East Security Alliance). It got nowhere. General (Ret.) Tony Zinni, a respected Marine 4-star enlisted by Trump to help with this and other Middle East issues, resigned in frustration.
- It was seen then as a patently obvious attempt by Trump to get Arab allies to pony up men and money to defeat ISIS and contain Iran. Generation-long differences amongst the Arab states led to MESA's defeat - as will happen with "NATO-ME."
- Sadly for the U.S., the idea floated by the president will wind up cheapening our relationship with NATO, inviting ridicule in the Middle East, and leading to yet more questions about the seriousness of U.S. national security policy, for a region badly in need of strategic vision and leadership consistency from Washington.
