Hedgeye - The Fourth Turning Explained | A Real Vision Interview With Hedgeye's Neil Howe (Part 2)

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT.

Neil Howe, renowned Demography sector head at Hedgeye, went on the road recently with Real Vision Co-founder Grant Williams. If you're interested in subscribing to Neil's Demography Unplugged research click here for a special deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dK-TyUvnGBA

In this special, three-part series, Howe discusses the challenges that the combination of cycles and human hubris pose to markets and to society. Below is a brief transcript discussing his findings with his heralded study The Fourth Turning and the full video for part one.

Howe publishes a weekly Demography Unplugged research note. Click here to learn more and subscribe.

Grant Williams: To listen to this is a very big reason why I wanted to come and talk to you here. But it's because the parallels are there. And people are going to be listening to this as I am and hear it all and thinking it's happening again. This idea of a crisis happening again, this idea of a generation that feel like they're owed something and in many cases are and promises made to them. And, it's all coalescing again.

Neil Howe: And each location of the generation in its appropriate phase of life is lined up where it was back then meaning that, yeah, you have this new special, protected, sheltered, community-oriented conformist, achievement-minded, optimistic generation begin to come of age and you could say a lot of bad things about it too. Cobbold and Pollyanna-ish and all of this stuff. So, they're beginning to come of age.

And then you have a generation that's entering midlife now, which is exactly like in the '30s. The last generation, which is Generation X. These are the pragmatists. These are the cynics. They never expected anything. And the last generation never expect anything, by the way, they never got it.

Grant Williams: They never got it. Right. Yeah.

Neil Howe: So, they were the poorest generation of elders relative to the young in American history back in the late 50s, early 60s. So, that's the new generation X moving into midlife, they're going to be the decision makers in this next crisis that people have to make the decisions on the ground. And then you have a highly moralistic and visionary, idealistic generation of elders. That was FDR. That was Henry Stimson. That was Albert Einstein. That was that generation, a misionary generation, entering old age. That was the constellation back then. It's the constellation we have today. And one thing, as we go on today, we might look at who's going to play the role of the great champion.