OVERVIEW | Good, BUT SLOWING
On a year over year basis, Health Care Employment improved +2.5% and slowed slightly from +2.6% in November. While growth in December and for 4Q19 remained positive as it was in 3Q19 and in- line with a positive backdrop for consumption, under the hood there are both good and bad leading indicators. On the negative side, the rate of change in Health Care Labor demand continues on a negative trend. Based on prior cycles, a meaningful negative trend could emerge mid- 2020 if trends persist. On the positive side, average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are positive with weekly hours a leading indicator for both wage rates and hiring. A strong flu season may be driving incremental demand in the short- term, although the flu season has yet to drive a meaningful increase in hospitalization and mortality.
We'll be discussing the impact of this and other US Health Care Macro updates on our longs and shorts on Monday, January 13th at 10 am EST.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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