Overview
What worked in 2019, particularly in 3Q19, was a positive view on medical consumption. Our Health Care Services longs have performed especially well. So now what? It can be hard to stick with winners, but the conclusion here is to do just that. Our forecast has been correct in previewing the deceleration in Health Care employment, and by extension consumption, that we're now seeing in the ADP data. On the positive side, we won't see more difficult comparisons until February 2020 and consensus expectations remain fairly muted in our view. As we try to translate a decelerating US Economy into a decelerating US Medical Economy, we aren't likely to see a meaningful negative divergence until 2Q20 at the soonest.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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