Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Macro Analyst Christian Drake.
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Growth is slowing, margins are contracting, Inventories remain elevated, CEO confidence remains at recessionary levels, November Durable Goods Orders fell to -3.7% Y/Y (marking a 4th consecutive month of negative growth with global weakness + Boeing production suspension promising a continuing drag), pricing power is deteriorating, the Fed Regional Survey’s for December remain mixed and underwhelming at best and Business debt exceeded Household debt for 1st time in 28 years in the latest quarter .... corporate leverage up while investment is down is a difficult circle to square with respect to an expectation for a durable pickup in private non-resi investment which, after falling for the last two quarters, is quite literally in recession. In other words, it’s not at all clear that China buying agricultural products is the catalyst to lift the uncertainty albatross and cultivate resurgent capex in the face of global growth stagnation, contracting margins and negative EPS growth. |
