Recession Indicators: Dec. 20, 2019 Update

12/20/19 01:13PM EST
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  • What’s New Since Nov 18, 2019:

    • SUMMARY:
      • Indicator changes were mixed over the past month, but overall the outlook has improved. Positive news: strong growth in NFP employment, a buoyant S&P 500, and exceptional housing activity. Mixed news: Industrial Production, up MoM but still negative YoY. Negative news: Continued weakness in manf, including the ISM PMI and the regional Philly and Richmond Fed indexes.
    • IMPROVED:
      • Total CES Employment^ YoY rose from 1.42% in OCT to 1.47% NOV; expectations beat.
      • Manf new orders for durable goods* YoY (Ch. 26) rose from -5.35% in SEP to -2.68% in OCT; expectations beat.
      • S&P 500 Index* YoY (Ch. 95) rose from 12.02% in NOV to 13.80% in DEC.
      • Housing starts YoY (Ch. 28) rose from 112K in OCT to 163K NOV. Housing permits* YoY (Ch. 30) fell from 180K in OCT to 148K in NOV; still strong. Both expectations beats.
      • U Michigan Consumer Expectations Index* YoY (Ch. 83) rose from -0.8 in NOV to 1.9 in DEC; expectations beat.
      • Conference Board CCI: Expectations* YoY (Ch. 81) rose from -20.6 in OCT to -14.4 in NOV.
    • MIXED:
      • Industrial Production YoY (Ch. 14) rose from -1.30% in OCT to -0.75%1 in NOV; expectations beat, but 3rd consecutive negative month. Industrial Production: Manufacturing+^ YoY (Ch. 15) rose from -1.61% in OCT to -0.67% in NOV; 5th consecutive negative month.
    • WORSENED:
      • ISM Manf PMI* (Ch. 40) fell from 48.3 in OCT to 48.1 in NOV; expectations fail. This is 4th consecutive month of manf contraction.
      • Philadelphia Fed Regional Manf Index (Ch. 47) fell from 10.4 in OCT to 0.3 in NOV; expectations fail.
      • Richmond Fed Regional Manf Index (Ch. 48) fell from 8 in OCT to -1 in NOV; expectations fail.
      • Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Ch. 19) dropped from -0.45 in SEPT to -0.71 in OCT; expectations fail.
      • Initial Unemployment Claims* + 4-week average (Ch. 55) rose from 218K in NOV to 225K in DEC. Up +6% since late SEP.
    • FAVORITE INDICATORS: STATUS CHANGE (Ch. 117):
      • Industrial Production: Manufacturing+^ YoY (Ch. 15): Medium-Term, change from “Close to Triggering” to “All Clear.”

FOOTNOTES
* A Conference Board Leading Indicator
+ One of Our Favorite Indicators
^ A “Big Four” Indicator

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