In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I look at the equity bull market--still edging up thanks to the "Phase One" trade deal. Buy the rumor and sell the news? We'll see. We are seeing some signs of accelerating inflation, which could (a) bloom into a full-grown inflation scare, forcing Powell to hike (unlikely); (b) sap corporate earnings through rising unit labor costs, tanking the market and forcing Powell to cut (more likely); or (c) evaporate with more real economic deceleration, either here or abroad, putting us back on recession watch (possibly, our default position).

The Fed's FOMC did nothing last week, as expected, allowing Fed Chairman Powell to bask (for now) in "mission accomplished" glory. The Fed is hinting that this may be a replay of Maestro's successful "midcycle" cuts in 1998 or 1995. With a big NFP number still in the headlines, Powell is suggesting--wrongly, in my view--that the labor market still has plenty of slack and that this expansion has miles to go before it sleeps.

Economic news in the U.S. over the last three weeks was mixed. On good side: strong CES job growth, nice Michigan numbers, and rising service-sector PMIs. On the bad side: a fourth consecutive under-50 month in the ISM manufacturing PMI and a back-to-earth deceleration in housing. Going in the Christmas season, the advance retail number was less than reassuring.

Abroad, the economic news was also mixed. It was a good month for China. Nearly all of China's PMIs were up and the NBS PMI showed manufacturing expanding for the first time since April. The Phase-One trade deal will also help by alleviating China's raging food inflation. Still, China's industrial sector remains weak and contracted--and is now suffering from multiple bankruptcies and forced mergers. The Shanghai index rebounded last week, but it remains 10% lower than it was last spring.

Across the rest of Asia, the reports were mostly negative.  The headlines in Japan were especially alarming. Buffeted by a typhoon and a sales-tax hike, Japan's retail sales in Oct plunged MoM by an catastrophic -14.4%. YoY retail is down -7.1%. Also in October, industrial production is down YoY by -7.7%--that's the worst number since the Japanese recession of 2012-13. The news elsewhere in Asia isn't much better. In South Korea, the manufacturing PMI for November came in under 50--also for the 7th month in a row. In Australia, Q3 annualized GDP came in at 1.7%. That's the third quarter in a row that GDP down under has been under 2%, which hasn't happened since 2009. And in India, the much awaited 3Q GDP growth number finally came in. And it was disappointing: only 4.5% YoY.

As for Europe, the EZ economies are pretty much treading water. Manufacturing continues to contract, and services continue barely to expand--for very low overall growth rates. France alone is helping to keep the Eurozone afloat: It boasts relatively strong GDP growth and an expanding manufacturing sector at a time when factories across most of the rest of Europe are powering down. Can France keep it up? I ask this because, starting 10 days ago, all the workers in France's major transportation and public works unions went out on strike--en grève, as they say in France--to protest Emanuel Macron's plans to "rationalize" their pension benefits.

In Britain, meanwhile, Boris Johnson finally "got Brexit done" with his massive, even historic, victory in Britain's national election last week. Coming out of last Thursday's election, the Tories gained a large outright majority in the House of Commons--80 seats more than all the others parties combined and an astonishing 162 seats more than Labor. This is biggest winning margin for the Conservatives since Maggie Thatcher's triumphal victory in 1986. And it's the worst showing by the Labor Party since 1935. Like Donald Trump did with the Republican Party, I think it's fair to say, Boris Johnson realigned Britain's Conservative Party in a strikingly populist direction.

Finally, I take a look at declining geographic mobility in America. My story is triggered by a new Census report showing that only 9.8% of Americans moved in the year ending in March. This is the lowest rate since the government began tracking it in 1947 and the first time it has fallen below 10%, thanks in part to an especially sharp decline in moving rates among Millennials. What's driving this decline? And what are the implications? We dive deep into this issue.

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