The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 24th of May through the 28th is full of critical releases and events. Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.
Starbucks driving traffic through new social media initiative.
Starbucks has launched a new discounting initiative through the popular application Foursquare that could potentially increase the ROI on promotional activity. For those of you that are unfamiliar with the application, foursquare enables users to “check in” at locations via their mobile device. This allows foursquare members let friends know where they are and share information. Additionally, members can accumulate points with each check in and become a virtual mayor of a given location if they check in at a location more than anyone else. Please email with any further questions, our social media guru, Daryl Jones, will be happy to help.
This is relevant for Starbucks in that their new drive rewards the virtual mayor of each Starbucks store with deep discounts - $1 off a “however-you-want-it Frappucino”. Location-based loyalty programs will likely become more and more commonplace; this type of promotion focuses on best customers and their ability to spread the word about a service or product. In the case of Starbucks, this is a meaningful discount and may serve to drive some additional traffic and brand awareness. The company is clearly thinking of innovative ways to drive their top line.
From the beginning, the RRGB advertising strategy has had severe limitations.
Advertising is a drug and RRGB is a clear case in point of that fact. Without advertising and LTOs, RRGB would not be able to increase its customer counts. (See chart below) Now that they have gone down that road they can’t go back. Well I guess they can, but they are not going to.
The significant increase in traffic when using LTOs has trained the consumer to only come back when they have a coupon and rendered the margins of the concept too high.
There is no reason to get in front of this story or buy the dip. In fact, it looks to be a “fade the strength” candidate (just like BWLD).
If you want to read management story telling about how this is all good news continue reading….
Very pleased with the sales in the first seven weeks of the first quarter
Opened three new company restaurants
Two new franchise restaurants were opened
Expecting 2010 investment per restaurant to be $1.9m vs $2.5m per restaurant three years ago
Impact from weather was approximately 140 bps
Average weekly sales for comparable units were $55,896 vs 58,079 in 1Q09
AWS for non comp units were $56,560 vs $55,245 in 1Q09
Guest satisfaction scores remain high
New “certified designated trainers” program in all restaurants
Improving guest experience
14 restaurant openings all received with high volumes
Spring time LTO began in February with Chophouse Burger and Southwest Grilled Chicken salad at $5.99 each
Supported by national cable TV over a 5 week period
1Q10 guest counts were down 6.8% in first 7 weeks of quarter vs 7.3% in same period ‘09
During the next 7 weeks, includes 4 weeks of TV, guest counts improved to +5.8% (12.6% delta)
Last 3 weeks of quarter guest counts still up 4.6%
During first 7 weeks of quarter, SSS were down 7.8%, next 6 weeks saw SSS of +2% (9.8% delta)
Last 3 weeks of the quarter SSS were up 2%
The LTO and TV initiatives generated enough returns to more than break even (even allowing for $1.2m funded on behalf of franchisees.
Brand awareness increased in the quarter
Summer LTO promotion kicks off June 14th with two new items
Gift card sales were up 54% or $1.5m vs prior
Focusing on new product development
New menus in restaurants by May 24th
Adding a dozen new items
Patty melt, tested well in spring
New burger, New pastas
Lower priced appetizers
No price increases in this new menu
Very excited about upcoming summer LTO promotion and other new initiatives for the balance of the year
Restaurant sales increased 0.3%
Comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.3%
106 US comp restaurants reported a 2.1% decrease
SSS results for US and Canadian systems showed significant improvement
1Q ROP was 18.2% vs 19.4% 2009
Decrease was from increased labor cost (130 bps) and higher occupancy cost
Occupancy cost was due to deleveraging from lower volume
Decreased productivity hurt labor
Offset by food line 20 bps benefit
Hamburger pricing ran below '09 levels
Late in the quarter, beef prices increased
Adjusted outlook for beef to deflation of 0.5% to 1% (from prior guidance of deflation of 2% to 2.5%)
Lower price point from LTO had a 50 bps negative impact on COGS
Produce hurt COGS by 25 bps
Decreased supply due to weather
Continuing impact into 2Q
Other miscellaneous items
Spring LTO campaign cost 6.6m and was funded by company including a $1.2 million or $0.06 EPS paid by company to fund a franchisee portion of the spring media investment
Preopening costs stayed level on a per unit basis year-over-year
CFFO was $23.9, exceeded Capex of $9.2m
Recorded other revenue from gift card breakage from the first time
Recognized if there is no legal obligation to remit cost of gift card to holder of unredeemed gift card that has a low chance of being redeemed
Breakage of gift cards expected to be 200k to 250k per quarter
$30.9m in cash
Debt balance of $170.2m
$113.3m borrowed under $150 term loan
Paid down debt $21.2m in 1Q and continuing to make repayments in 2Q
In compliance with all debt covenants. Debt to EBITDA is just below 2:1, as of April 18th, 2010.
Effective tax rate in 2010 expected to be 17%
Taking into account results from 1Q and trends for media campaigns and weather
Expecting deflation but changing outlook to -0.5% to flat
Some G&A savings
Gift card breakage was not included in guidance given in February
188k of pretax income is $0.01 in EPS
Revenues of 872-880m
$1.10 to $1.33 in EPS for 2010
Flat to up 1% SSS for 2010
1% SSS =~$0.21 EPS
$18.1m for TV vs 2.3m for TV in 2009
Expect $3.3m in Q2, expect $3.4m in Q3, and $2.3m in Q4
Capex will be approx 35m to 40m
Funded out of cash flow
Debt payments of $18.7 million are scheduled on term loan, funded out of FCF less capex
Left over FCF will be used to pay down revolver
Q: The guidance of $1.10 to $1.30 includes the $0.19 benefit?
Q: You started the LTOs in mid September, is that the explanation for labor delevering?
A: Labor was under pressure generally compared to our expectation. Weather didn’t help. It’s a productivity issue. It’s a combination of staffing up also. Fixed components of labor line also being delivered.
Q: Commodity costs, you’re modeling beef up year-over-year now?
A: Yes. Took it from deflation of 2% or 2.5% to -0.5% to -1%.
Q: Impact of advertising on comps…is it as natural as Jan and Feb being hit by weather, was that part of it?
A: We did see some weather impact that we saw in February but we also saw an impact in early March. That was the difference for the remainder of the quarter.
Q: First 4 weeks number…did you have any store closures? Days of operation lost?
A: No, only one store closing at the end of month and there were no other closures. Even in Nashville we stayed open when others haven’t.
Q: Did your original guidance of $1.27 to $1.45 guidance assume any gift card breakage benefit?
Q: In terms of the bounceback promotion, what kind of benefit did you see in terms of holding onto that traffic?
A: It hasn't been materially impactful.
Q: Participation rate? Low 10%?
A: It’s 5% or 5.5%, we didn't start it until after the promo was ended and the product was off promo.
Q: Salads are 8% of sales, and salad is an LTO, what are you thinking about salad mix going forward?
A: Driving value beyond burgers. It has helped awareness but not impacted mix.
Q: Did TV drive a lot of new customers?
A: Seen a little of both. Some new customers and some frequency but don’t have most up to date information – 6 month lag on credit card data.
Q: On revenue guidance, in the first quarter you saw sequential improvement in sales, also taking into account the weather impact and the TV program continuing, I’m surprised that you’re taking such a haircut in revenue guidance for the full year.
A: take down of SSS was weather (40 bps) and 2% reduction of SSS. Really it’s based on the pattern of the lift during media and the post media lack of retention.
When we think about the projection, we’ve had no national LTO promotion until this one. Tested regionally in 10 markets. The effects of more difficult markets like California were not in those test promotions and those markets continue to post difficulties relative to other markets.
Q: What kind of mix on the LTO items?
A: Very similar to in the fall. 10% overall. More of a 40% chicken sandwich, 60% burger and it was similar this time too with 40% salad and 60% burger.
Q: Is the post advertising period (the three weeks after) making you suppress expectations?
A: It was not quite as robust as what we were modeling originally. Projecting that into the summer and fall.
Q: Average weekly sales numbers or gross sales before discounts, is that before couponing?
A: that’s the discount we give for team member meals or birthday burgers. It has been running at 3% for a long time.
Q: Restaurant margins, with the LTO products, you could have done worse on food…why were food costs better year-over-year?
A: Deflation we expected and pressure from produce and promo (50 bps negatively) and benefit from hamburger and other costs.
Q: It looks like you have a slight decrease in your ad budget this year, overall and in TV. Could you explain how it’s changed from the first quarter? Are you going for less impressions or gatting better pricing?
A: 15.6 company and between 16 and 17 million. Not a significant difference between the two.
Q: Can you still hit breakeven for SSS? On the media spending?
A: 1Q when compared with pre-media trend, and the lift we saw from media, was more than enough to pay for $6.6m invested in Q1. Confident on media mix going forward.
Q: Was the mix for $7.99 the same as the $5.99 offers? Was it low and is that why you went back to $6.99?
A: The patty melt was introduced at $7.99 as a normal product…will go back to normal pricing with new menu next week.
Q: Sales guidance…we’re down 2% plus and 1% plus quarter to date…easier comparisons going forward. Going to spend on advertising? What am I missing?
A: Q4 comps will be more difficult. We go over that in Q4 this year. California and Arizona are still challenging markets and those are big markets.
Q: That shows up in the 1Q and QTD numbers.
A: We used 4Q numbers to model original guidance…
Q: What’s your assumption for beef from here?
A: Probably year over year for Q2 to Q4 we’ll see somewhere around a 7% increase above 2009.
Q: $5.99 items advertised externally only…are you having your core guests use that price point?
A: Tough to tell, there is no way to accurately track.
Q: You discussed the align and engage program, was there incremental year-over-year G&A or restaurant operating cost and if so how should we model that for the rest of the year?
A: It won’t be material.
Q: When are you planning on rolling out royalty program?
A: Still monitoring it in test stores.
Q: Non comping units…on the units that opened in 1H09, what are you seeing there?
A: Not quite as strong…averaged 110k a week
Q: Lower guidance for the year…other than the lower comp and food costs, is there anything else causing you to lower?
A: No those are the two major buckets
Q: Retention of guests after lto, what were your expectations?
A: Not going to get that granular but the October lto testing was higher than what we’re seeing in 2010. Seeing difficulty in CA and NV.
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The 200-day Moving Monkeys took a good, hard, and long look into the depths of The Shark Tank this morning. Both the pre and post opening bell trading saw some of the most reactive monkeys in this market get eaten. We like monkeys; we just don’t want to trade like them.
This isn’t to say that this market is without risk. It’s to remind ourselves that proactively predictable risks get priced in. From the April Flower peak of 1217 (April 23rd) to this morning’s freak-out May Shower low, we have witnessed a correction of -13%. For you stock market almanac fans, a -13% drop in 20 days of SP500 trading happens very infrequently!
Now I have never been a big fan of the sell side giving me a risk management life-line. Managing risk doesn’t happen in the vacuum that they and the media perpetuate. It changes as prices do. The quantitative levels I give you are born out of a multi-factor model that changes dynamically as market prices do. Its math, not alchemy.
The thick green line in the chart below is the line you should be laser-like focused on. That’s the long term TAIL line of support for the SP500 at 1070. And we need more price, volume, and volatility data than a 1.5 hour feeding by Squeezy The Shark to validate it.
I’m going to give this 3-days. If the long term TAIL line of support can hold, the SP500 has no resistance up to the 1125 line. That would be a 5% squeeze that performance chasers and monkeys alike cannot afford to miss.
Take your time here and be patient. The big down moves are behind us, for now…
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
The Macau Metro Monitor, May 21st, 2010
ADDITIONAL MOP 3.4 BILLION IN PUBLIC INVESTMENT ESTIMATE Macau Daily Times
The SAR government is going to increase investment budget for public investment and development projects by more than MOP3.4 billion this year. In order to fulfill Chief Executive Fernando Chui Sai's various policies and measures introduced in his 2010 Policy Address, the government would need to raise public expenditures by a total of MOP 8.45 billion. As a result, Secretary for Economy and Finance Francis Tam Pak Yuen attended the plenary meeting at the Legislative Assembly yesterday to present the bill to amend the Fiscal Year 2010 Budget.
Stronger than expected gaming revenues and therefore higher tax collections should easily fund the budget increases. Secretary Tam said “since the impact of the global financial crisis is fading away and the pace of the local economic recovery is being accelerated, the gaming tax revenues reported a more satisfactory increase than expectations over the past few months, and thus it is predicted that this year’s overall tax revenue will exceed the original forecast."
TIME TO REVALUE MGM GRAND MACAU? Intelligence Macau
In a market that has been booming, MGM's performance has been uninspiring. Its April numbers were sub-par, with gross gaming revenue of just HK$915 million giving the property only 6.6% market share.
MGM is in discussions with banks about refinancing its debt and preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange later this year. The goal is to raise US$850 million through a club loan and raise at least US$500 million through their IPO.
IM thinks that MGM needs a better story to pitch investors aside from just a name change in order to execute on their plan. One story could be that it has been resisting demand from junkets to open more VIP rooms at the existing property due to probity issues and capacity constraints, but is now ready to make this business take off once it has raised the necessary financing to build out the necessary facilities.
Another is that the company is about to acquire a prime piece of land in Cotai on which it will build a property that will go head-to-head with the Venetian, City of Dreams and Galaxy. Although the land in question is supposedly has a smallish plot out at the back, behind Lot 7&8, which isn't exactly enough to get investors excited. Surely there must be something better that Pansy could get her hands on?
SJM STILL RULES, OK? Intelligence Macau
IM editors still like SJM given their amazing 1Q2010 results and 50% discounted valuation compared to its US peers. Despite having lower margins, the third party business is still a significant contributor to the bottom line at HK$270MM in 1Q2010 alone. Also Who would have thought that Grand Lisboa would be able to earn the same as Sands Macao or City of Dreams despite having to give an outrageous 57.5% revenue-share deal with its biggest VIP room operator.
SANDS CLOSES FINANCING DEAL macaubusiness.com, LVS 8-K
As expected, Sands China has closed a US$1.75 billion project financing at HIBOR plus 4.5%, which will be used to complete construction on parcels 5 and 6. Adelson expects the first phase of the development to feature approximately 3,700 hotel rooms and additional retail, gaming and meeting/convention facilities, to open in the third quarter of 2011. Phase two includes a 2,300-room Sheraton hotel tower, as well as other non-gaming amenities, and is expected to open approximately six months later. Timing for the completion of a third phase, which includes plans for a St. Regis hotel and serviced-apartments, will be announced at a later date.
GAMING PAYS macaubusiness.com
People working in Macau’s gaming sector had a median monthly employment earnings of MOP13,000 during the first quarter of 2010. That figure is 44% higher than the general monthly employment earnings in Macau, which stood at MOP9,000.
You can’t just slap a 14x multiple on managed and franchised fees.
Continuing our review of the valuation of HOT, we focus this post on valuing the Fee business and once again use JPM as a proxy for “consensus”. At first glance, the “consensus” multiple of 14x times 2010 depressed Fees may look reasonable. However, there are a few problems with this simple valuation of Starwood’s fee business.
So where do we shake out on the value of HOT’s Fee business versus JPM and consensus. With the all-encompassing 14x multiple, JPM values the Fee business at $9.7BN or $52/share versus our valuation of the fee business at $5.2BN or $28/share - only a $24 difference. To make things a little more "apples to apples," we can apply all of JPM's Unallocated SG&A which they value at 12x as a reduction to the fee business valuation, and come up with a net value of HOT's fees at $7.8 billion, which still represents an $18 differential in value per share compared to where we shake out.
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