From the beginning, the RRGB advertising strategy has had severe limitations.
Advertising is a drug and RRGB is a clear case in point of that fact. Without advertising and LTOs, RRGB would not be able to increase its customer counts. (See chart below) Now that they have gone down that road they can’t go back. Well I guess they can, but they are not going to.
The significant increase in traffic when using LTOs has trained the consumer to only come back when they have a coupon and rendered the margins of the concept too high.
There is no reason to get in front of this story or buy the dip. In fact, it looks to be a “fade the strength” candidate (just like BWLD).
If you want to read management story telling about how this is all good news continue reading….
Q&A
1Q10
Very pleased with the sales in the first seven weeks of the first quarter
Opened three new company restaurants
Two new franchise restaurants were opened
Expecting 2010 investment per restaurant to be $1.9m vs $2.5m per restaurant three years ago
Operations
Impact from weather was approximately 140 bps
Average weekly sales for comparable units were $55,896 vs 58,079 in 1Q09
AWS for non comp units were $56,560 vs $55,245 in 1Q09
Guest satisfaction scores remain high
New “certified designated trainers” program in all restaurants
Increasing motivation
Improving guest experience
14 restaurant openings all received with high volumes
Marketing
Spring time LTO began in February with Chophouse Burger and Southwest Grilled Chicken salad at $5.99 each
Supported by national cable TV over a 5 week period
1Q10 guest counts were down 6.8% in first 7 weeks of quarter vs 7.3% in same period ‘09
During the next 7 weeks, includes 4 weeks of TV, guest counts improved to +5.8% (12.6% delta)
Last 3 weeks of quarter guest counts still up 4.6%
During first 7 weeks of quarter, SSS were down 7.8%, next 6 weeks saw SSS of +2% (9.8% delta)
Last 3 weeks of the quarter SSS were up 2%
The LTO and TV initiatives generated enough returns to more than break even (even allowing for $1.2m funded on behalf of franchisees.
Other marketing
Brand awareness increased in the quarter
Summer LTO promotion kicks off June 14th with two new items
Gift cards
Gift card sales were up 54% or $1.5m vs prior
Focusing on new product development
New menus in restaurants by May 24th
Adding a dozen new items
Patty melt, tested well in spring
New burger, New pastas
Lower priced appetizers
No price increases in this new menu
Very excited about upcoming summer LTO promotion and other new initiatives for the balance of the year
Financials
Restaurant sales increased 0.3%
Comparable restaurant sales decreased 2.3%
106 US comp restaurants reported a 2.1% decrease
SSS results for US and Canadian systems showed significant improvement
1Q ROP was 18.2% vs 19.4% 2009
Decrease was from increased labor cost (130 bps) and higher occupancy cost
Occupancy cost was due to deleveraging from lower volume
Decreased productivity hurt labor
Offset by food line 20 bps benefit
Commodities
Hamburger pricing ran below '09 levels
Late in the quarter, beef prices increased
Adjusted outlook for beef to deflation of 0.5% to 1% (from prior guidance of deflation of 2% to 2.5%)
Lower price point from LTO had a 50 bps negative impact on COGS
Produce hurt COGS by 25 bps
Decreased supply due to weather
Continuing impact into 2Q
Other miscellaneous items
Spring LTO campaign cost 6.6m and was funded by company including a $1.2 million or $0.06 EPS paid by company to fund a franchisee portion of the spring media investment
Preopening costs stayed level on a per unit basis year-over-year
CFFO was $23.9, exceeded Capex of $9.2m
Recorded other revenue from gift card breakage from the first time
Recognized if there is no legal obligation to remit cost of gift card to holder of unredeemed gift card that has a low chance of being redeemed
Breakage of gift cards expected to be 200k to 250k per quarter
Balance Sheet
$30.9m in cash
Debt balance of $170.2m
$113.3m borrowed under $150 term loan
Paid down debt $21.2m in 1Q and continuing to make repayments in 2Q
In compliance with all debt covenants. Debt to EBITDA is just below 2:1, as of April 18th, 2010.
Outlook
Effective tax rate in 2010 expected to be 17%
Taking into account results from 1Q and trends for media campaigns and weather
Expecting deflation but changing outlook to -0.5% to flat
Some G&A savings
Gift card breakage was not included in guidance given in February
188k of pretax income is $0.01 in EPS
Revenues of 872-880m
$1.10 to $1.33 in EPS for 2010
Flat to up 1% SSS for 2010
1% SSS =~$0.21 EPS
$18.1m for TV vs 2.3m for TV in 2009
Expect $3.3m in Q2, expect $3.4m in Q3, and $2.3m in Q4
Capex will be approx 35m to 40m
Funded out of cash flow
Debt payments of $18.7 million are scheduled on term loan, funded out of FCF less capex
Left over FCF will be used to pay down revolver
Q&A
Q: The guidance of $1.10 to $1.30 includes the $0.19 benefit?
A: Yes.
Q: You started the LTOs in mid September, is that the explanation for labor delevering?
A: Labor was under pressure generally compared to our expectation. Weather didn’t help. It’s a productivity issue. It’s a combination of staffing up also. Fixed components of labor line also being delivered.
Q: Commodity costs, you’re modeling beef up year-over-year now?
A: Yes. Took it from deflation of 2% or 2.5% to -0.5% to -1%.
Q: Impact of advertising on comps…is it as natural as Jan and Feb being hit by weather, was that part of it?
A: We did see some weather impact that we saw in February but we also saw an impact in early March. That was the difference for the remainder of the quarter.
Q: First 4 weeks number…did you have any store closures? Days of operation lost?
A: No, only one store closing at the end of month and there were no other closures. Even in Nashville we stayed open when others haven’t.
Q: Did your original guidance of $1.27 to $1.45 guidance assume any gift card breakage benefit?
A: No.
Q: In terms of the bounceback promotion, what kind of benefit did you see in terms of holding onto that traffic?
A: It hasn't been materially impactful.
Q: Participation rate? Low 10%?
A: It’s 5% or 5.5%, we didn't start it until after the promo was ended and the product was off promo.
Q: Salads are 8% of sales, and salad is an LTO, what are you thinking about salad mix going forward?
A: Driving value beyond burgers. It has helped awareness but not impacted mix.
Q: Did TV drive a lot of new customers?
A: Seen a little of both. Some new customers and some frequency but don’t have most up to date information – 6 month lag on credit card data.
Q: On revenue guidance, in the first quarter you saw sequential improvement in sales, also taking into account the weather impact and the TV program continuing, I’m surprised that you’re taking such a haircut in revenue guidance for the full year.
A: take down of SSS was weather (40 bps) and 2% reduction of SSS. Really it’s based on the pattern of the lift during media and the post media lack of retention.
When we think about the projection, we’ve had no national LTO promotion until this one. Tested regionally in 10 markets. The effects of more difficult markets like California were not in those test promotions and those markets continue to post difficulties relative to other markets.
Q: What kind of mix on the LTO items?
A: Very similar to in the fall. 10% overall. More of a 40% chicken sandwich, 60% burger and it was similar this time too with 40% salad and 60% burger.
Q: Is the post advertising period (the three weeks after) making you suppress expectations?
A: It was not quite as robust as what we were modeling originally. Projecting that into the summer and fall.
Q: Average weekly sales numbers or gross sales before discounts, is that before couponing?
A: that’s the discount we give for team member meals or birthday burgers. It has been running at 3% for a long time.
Q: Restaurant margins, with the LTO products, you could have done worse on food…why were food costs better year-over-year?
A: Deflation we expected and pressure from produce and promo (50 bps negatively) and benefit from hamburger and other costs.
Q: It looks like you have a slight decrease in your ad budget this year, overall and in TV. Could you explain how it’s changed from the first quarter? Are you going for less impressions or gatting better pricing?
A: 15.6 company and between 16 and 17 million. Not a significant difference between the two.
Q: Can you still hit breakeven for SSS? On the media spending?
A: 1Q when compared with pre-media trend, and the lift we saw from media, was more than enough to pay for $6.6m invested in Q1. Confident on media mix going forward.
Q: Was the mix for $7.99 the same as the $5.99 offers? Was it low and is that why you went back to $6.99?
A: The patty melt was introduced at $7.99 as a normal product…will go back to normal pricing with new menu next week.
Q: Sales guidance…we’re down 2% plus and 1% plus quarter to date…easier comparisons going forward. Going to spend on advertising? What am I missing?
A: Q4 comps will be more difficult. We go over that in Q4 this year. California and Arizona are still challenging markets and those are big markets.
Q: That shows up in the 1Q and QTD numbers.
A: We used 4Q numbers to model original guidance…
Q: What’s your assumption for beef from here?
A: Probably year over year for Q2 to Q4 we’ll see somewhere around a 7% increase above 2009.
Q: $5.99 items advertised externally only…are you having your core guests use that price point?
A: Tough to tell, there is no way to accurately track.
Q: You discussed the align and engage program, was there incremental year-over-year G&A or restaurant operating cost and if so how should we model that for the rest of the year?
A: It won’t be material.
Q: When are you planning on rolling out royalty program?
A: Still monitoring it in test stores.
Q: Non comping units…on the units that opened in 1H09, what are you seeing there?
A: Not quite as strong…averaged 110k a week
Q: Lower guidance for the year…other than the lower comp and food costs, is there anything else causing you to lower?
A: No those are the two major buckets
Q: Retention of guests after lto, what were your expectations?
A: Not going to get that granular but the October lto testing was higher than what we’re seeing in 2010. Seeing difficulty in CA and NV.
Howard Penney
Managing Director
