While Hedgeye has a favorable outlook on the housing sector overall in the near-term, there are some troubling signs in a few metropolises around the U.S. – with New York City being one of the most auspicious examples.

In the clip above, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner explains that New York has a glut of supply that has been growing since 2015, but slowing demand. New taxes from the SALT law changes, the new tiered structure of the New York state “mansion tax,” as well as the banning of anonymous purchases of property behind an LLC are also hampering real estate in the city.

“[Manhattan’s] resale dollar volume was in fact the worst quarter on record from a year-over-year standpoint over the last eight years,” Steiner explains of 3Q 2019 data, noting that it dropped nearly 34%.

“The trends are already not good. Home prices in New York City and Manhattan have already trended into negative territory on a trend that appears to have picked up momentum to the downside.”

Watch the full clip above for more.

Is New York City Housing Entering A Secular Decline? - early look