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REPLAY: A "Crash" Course in Recession Indicators CLICK HERE for video and audio replays. Contact sales@hedgeye.com for more information |
Yesterday Macro's Senior Analyst, Darius Dale and I hosted a presentation on all things US recessions, with analysis ranging from a deep-dive on what constitutes a recession, to contextualizing the business cycle more broadly, to a detailed review across the waterfront of recognized recession indicators.
TIMESTAMPS
Introduction: 0:13 to 0:46
Disclaimer: 0:47 to 1:30
SPEAKER: Neil Howe, Demography
What is a Recession?: 3:09 to 10:57
Properties of Good Recession Indicators: 10:58 to 14:43
Indicators: 14:44 to 47:07
- Production, Consumption, & Income: 14:53 to 19:02
- Housing, Autos, & Transportation: 19:03 to 21:05
- Real-Time Diffusion Indexes: 21:06 to 23:28
- Employment: 23:29 to 30:11
- Inflation & Wages: 30:12 to 34:00
- Sentiment: 34:01 to 36:28
- Financial & Other “Leading” Indicators: 36:29 to 47:07
Lesson: What are the Best Indicators?: 47:08 to 47:39
What is the Current Recession Outlook?: 47:40 to 49:08
SPEAKER: Darius Dale, Macro
How to Spot Recessions and Risk Management: 49:09 to 50:14
Model-Based Approaches: 50:15 to 1:00:36
Q&A: 1:00:37 to 1:07:24
We intend to maintain this presentation as a living document and we’ll provide regular updates as key indicators increasingly signal a downturn is approaching.
- Neil & Darius
