NEWSWIRE: 11/19/19

  • A new report predicts that if the current pace of decline in Millennials’ health continues, their mortality rates could climb by 40% compared to Gen Xers at the same age. The increased prevalence of behavioral health conditions like depression, as well as elevated rates of physical health conditions like hypertension, spell trouble for both this generation’s welfare in middle age and for the economy. (BlueCross BlueShield)
    • NH: Let me first say something charitable about this major study from the Blues. One basic thrust of the report is that Millennials are suffering from a higher prevalence of chronic conditions leading to future health problems (obesity, inactivity, hypertension, diabetes, and stress) than earlier generations did at the same age. I agree with this assessment. See "Older Millennials Less Healthy Than Xers Were at the Same Age"; "A Generation on Edge"; "Indicators of Despair Rising for Adults in their 20s and 30s." Another bottom line of the report is that these conditions may already be leading to rising mortality rates from certain diseases among young adults. I agree here as well. See "Death Becomes Us... Mortality Increases"; "Strokes Rising Among the Young"; "Millennials at Higher Risk for Obesity-Related Cancers"; and "Colorectal Cancer on the Rise." 
    • Over the last century, probably the healthiest cohorts of Americans in terms of life-long nutrition, lifestyle, and risk-taking were the late-wave Silent (born in the 1930s) and the first-wave Boomers (born in the 1940s). Starting with late-wave Boomers on, most of the indicators of chronic health begin to deteriorate with each successive birth cohort. The one significant exception to this trend is cigarette smoking (in young adulthood and midlife), which has certainly declined for later-born cohorts. Remarkably, the beneficial effect of plummeting tobacco use has been overwhelmed by the other negative trends.
    • I once speculated that this cohort decline would end with Gen-Xers. But the early data show that it is continuing for first-wave Millennials. But here I would stress "early data." Nothing is fixed in stone at age 30. And some of these adverse indicators may reflect period effects that are currently affecting Americans of all ages.
    • But if I'm sympathetic with some of the broad conclusions of the report, I'm really disappointed with the analysis presented by the authors. Time and again, the authors make wildly misleading inferences, assume things that just aren't true, and are hopelessly vague about their methodology.
    • Let me offer one egregious example. Early on, the report tries to demonstrate the poor longevity prospects for Millennials by showing a chart that tracks, every year since 1960, the mortality of Americans at exactly age 35. So each year corresponds to a birth cohort. The mortality rate goes up for the late-wave Silent, down for early-wave Boomers, way up for late-wave Boomers, goes down for Gen-Xers, and starts to go back up again for Millennials who have just started reaching age 35 over the last few years. This bodes poorly, they say, for the Millennials' future.
    • Wait a minute! It does nothing of the kind. At age 35, mortality is generally very low for all cohorts. And a large share of deaths that do occur are due to extraordinary events like traffic fatalities, violent crime, suicide, and drug abuse. So any year-to-year period effects that hit all age brackets in these categories will hugely impact the age-35 mortality rate. The traffic death rate and late-'60s drug wave peaked in the mid- to late-1960s, when the Silent were hitting age 35. That later subsided for early-wave Boomers at age 35 in the 1970s and early '80s. Then the crime crime rose in the late-1980s and early '90s, when late-wave Boomers were hitting age 35. Then the crime wave hugely subsided with the coming of age of Millennials. Lately, a growing opioid epidemic (which, unlike the drug abuse wave the 1960s, hit all nonelderly adults) rose just as first-wave Millennials began hitting age 35.
    • See the fallacy here? The generation shown to be affected is an accident of the age at which you are measuring mortality. If, instead, the report had been tracking mortality at age 20, you would have ended up with an entirely different generational pattern. First-wave Boomers would be the ones getting killed in the auto accidents. And late-wave Xers would be the ones getting shot dead in the streets. As for the opioid epidemic, it is now past its peak in terms of fatalities (see "Overdose Mortality Falling, but Fentanyl Deaths Still Rising"). Few believe that Millennials are facing a higher lifetime generational risk of opioid death--any more than the Silent faced a higher lifetime rate of auto deaths or Boomers faced a higher lifetime rate of crime deaths. Yes, as I've conceded, Millennials do face growing lifetime health risks due to certain chronic conditions (like obesity and hypertension). But these have nothing to do with mortality-at-age-35 trends.
    • Another lapse. The report observes a slightly rising prevalence of unhealthy conditions among Millennials from 2014 to 2017. That's only three years. Is that really long enough to infer anything meaningful? What's more, the report says nothing about age-adjusting the results. Which means the rates could be slightly worse simply because this generation is three years older.
    • Finally, the authors offer several dire extrapolations of adverse Millennial health trends--but they do so on the basis of assumptions that they never explain. And then they give us numbers on exactly how much this worse health will cost Millennials in terms of future earning. This is simply outlandish. Yes, there is a well-known association between health and earnings. But only part of this association is causal (meaning: if you change one, the other will change). And the causal part is causal both ways--and that causality may change direction at different health and income levels. My point? These dollar figures are utterly fanciful.
    • Yes, Millennials do face some long-term health challenges. But most of the metrics offered in the report throw little light on these challenges. As for the "cost" of these challenges, why strain to conjure up such a weak number? Can't we all just agree that Millennials would be better off if they were healthier?

By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart2

  • Since 2009, high school participation in 11-man football has fallen more than 10%. As rosters continue shrinking amid safety concerns, who plays the game is changing, too, with black and Hispanic high school boys increasingly making up a larger plurality of the player pool. (The New York Times)
    • NH: Is this really a surprise to anyone? With the high-profile media coverage of CTE ranging from the Will Smith film Concussion to Bob Costas infamously calling football a game of “Russian roulette” to Brett Favre declaring he received “thousands” of concussions it’s no wonder participation is down. The fact is football is dangerous, and parents don’t want their kids on the field.
    • Why? Because--starting with the Millennials--each successive birth cohort of kids has been increasingly sheltered from the risks that earlier generations of young people took for granted. Tackle football was an early and obvious target. (See "Youth Football Participation Takes a Hit"; and "Kids' Sports Are a Ticking Time Bomb.") Even Millennials who become NFL stars are taking the risks more seriously. (See "Millennial NFL Players Proceed with Caution.")
    • Safety isn’t the only reason teens are no longer playing. Today there are many more things taking up kid’s time. As esports, rise fewer high schoolers are playing physical sports in general (see “Its Game on for Esports”). If football can kill you, why not just play a simulation from the warmth and safety of your house?
    • But some may feel that they can't afford not to incur the risks. And this is leading to a steady change in the racial makeup of high school football. While white students still make up over 50% of high school players, Black and Hispanic students are making up larger and larger portions of the player pool. (See the first graph below.) Last FebruaryThe Atlantic ran a story on the greater number of minorities in high school football. They found that in many Hispanic and black communities, football is seen as a means to a college sports scholarship and a ticket out of their struggling communities. According to the NCAA, Division I and II schools provide over $2.9 billion in athletic scholarships annually.

By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart3

  • “Ok boomer” has made the leap into marketing: The phrase is now social media fodder for brands from Netflix to Vice to Four Loko. At this point, it’s practically the default response for younger-skewing brands looking to roll their eyes at a competitor. (Advertising Age)
    • NH: If Boomers were hoping that the internet would soon forget the viral meme meant to undermine their holy opinions, their wish did not come true (see also “You’re OK Boomer”). With the growing popularity of the “ok boomer” meme, advertising execs did what they do best… corporatize internet culture.
    • Company Twitter pages have been leaning into Millennial meme culture for years. Wendy’s, for example has gained a loyal following for its viral tweets “roasting” its competitors by using the day’s most popular memes. It now have 3.4 million followers. While some Boomers are crying ageism, the companies most embracing the meme are more popular with younger generations. Four Loko and Natty Light are guzzled by poor college students; they don’t need to worry about ruffling Boomer feathers.
    • Meanwhile, the media commentary on "OK Boomer" rolls on. An Xer writing in the Boston Globe says he kinda likes it because it's a zinger that either shuts Boomers up or just infuriates them. (The famous Gen-X comeback at Boomers, often heard during the 1990s, was "whatever"--performed with an eyeroll.) Abigail Disney, a Boomer heiress to the iconic media company, commented on twitter that Boomers ought to relax and just "let the kids take the wheel." In an Axios interview, Senior VP of AARP Myrna Blyth (age 80), tried awkwardly to flip the script by replying "Ok Millennials, but we have all the money." That did not go over well--and she later apologized. She would have been smarter to just stay out of the argument by saying, hey, I'm not a Boomer. That's what William Shatner (age 88) did. "Sweetheart, that's the compliment for me," he wrote on twitter.
  • A recent piece by finance journalist Ben White argues that “the Baby Boomers broke America”—and ironically, are now lining up to fix it in 2020. White is clearly frustrated with the outsize influence Boomers have had politically and hopes that Xer or Millennial policymakers can help balance the scale. (Politico)
    • NH: OK, so I'm quoted in this piece for simply pointing out that Boomers cannot be blamed for simply doing this or that (bad) thing. They did lots of things. Every generation fundamentally changes the institutional and social and political direction of America. And Boomers did just that--at least as much as other generations.
    • For Xers and Millennials to claim that America would have been better off without Boomers, they would have to argue that they would have been better off inheriting the America of the "High" of the mid-1960s just before the Boomers came of age--as though the Boomers had never come along.
    • Well, sure, there was much to admire about the society forged by the Lost and G.I. and Silent Generations: A lot more social discipline, community, infrastructure, and savings. But also a lot more conformity, patriarchy, racism, bullying, pollution, and sheer material waste. Let's forget all the technological accomplishments of Boomers. Let's just think about what the culture felt like before Boomers arrived. Opinions may vary. But I don't think most of the Xers and Millennials who complain about Boomers would survive one day in that world before begging to return to the world Boomers have left for them.
    • Recall what the angel Clarence did for George Bailey in Frank Capra's classic, It's a Wonderful Life. By enabling George to see what the world would be like if he had never lived, Clarence allowed the entire G.I. Generation (epitomized by Jimmy Stewart) to see what America would have been like if it had not come along--a defeated and impoverished "Pottersville." Some one needs to produce a similar movie for Boomers.
  • Fully 61% of adults who have young adult children think parents are doing too much for their children these days—but only 28% believe that they themselves are doing too much. New data indicate that the majority of parents of 18- to 29-year-olds have given them financial help in the past year, most often for household expenses. (Pew Research Center)
    • NH: It's a tale as old as time: parents complaining about the rearing techniques that they themselves use. With most adults believing that parents are doing too much for their kids but less than a third of adults thinking they themselves do too much, someone isn’t being honest. (See the first and second graph below.)
    • Yet these findings are not as crazy as they might seem. Many of these parents are Gen Xers, a generation known for preaching to their kids about resilience and individualism while at the same time coddling their children into “snowflakes.” (See also “Generational Snowflake: Really?”) It’s just too fitting that they accuse parents of doing too much, but don’t take any of the blame. This parenting phenomenon is simply a reversal of how their parents raised them. The Silent Generation parents lectured Gen Xers about caution, while they let their unsupervised kids run wild.
    • What’s surprising is how many Millennials admit to receiving financial aid from their parents. It's one thing for 59% of parents to report that they give their adult children money. It's quite another for fully 45% of Millennials to admit to accepting such help. (See the third graph below.) Even when Boomers and Gen Xers accepted such help, they were much less likely to admit it. (Do Millennial guys any longer worry about being considered mammas boys? Apparently not.) Evidence points to Millennials being proud of their parents and wanting to show them off--as receiving parental help is just one more validation of just how very special they are. Consider novel Millennial habit of bringing their parents to their work offices. As if, once again, to show the world, or at least your coworkers and your boss, how connected you are to your parents. OK Boomer, indeed.

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart4

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart5

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart6 

    • As fruit juice continues its long decline among American consumers, consumption of fresh fruit is rising. Apples, melons, bananas, and tangerines have all grown in popularity since the 1970s—but not grapefruit, which can interact with medications that the fruit’s biggest fans (Silent and Boomers) are most likely to take. (Bloomberg)
      • NH: Americans are giving up on fruit juice, once America's signature breakfast beverage. As Bloomberg points out, Americans are consuming only 5.2 gallons of juice a year, the lowest recorded number to date. (See the first chart below.)
      • Fruit juice is falling into disgrace due to its high sugar content. An 8 oz bottle of Tropicana 100% Orange Juice has a total of 22 grams of sugar. The AMA suggests that women consume less than 25 grams and men less than 36 grams daily. Thus, that single bottle of OJ is almost all your daily recommended intake.
      • Among midlife adults, who have higher levels of obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure, the fear of sugar-related health issues has put juice on the chopping block (see also “Why U.S. Death Rate From Heart Failure is Surging”). But older adults are not the only ones ridding themselves of juice. With a barrage of media coverage warning about kids drinking sugary juice, health crazed parents and school systems have turned a skeptical eye to the drink. No longer are hordes of children lining up to get their snack-time juice box.
      • Many Americans have chosen to simply eat fresh fruit and forgo fruit juice altogether. The sale of whole fruits, like oranges and apples, has been on the up and up. Fresh fruit does not have the same sugar issues its cousin juice has, and the public has switched to the healthier vitamin-rich option.
      • The pulp in fresh fruit is high in fiber; that fiber connects to the natural sugar in the fruit making sugar enter the bloodstream at both lower and slower rates. When people drink juice, they lose the pulp and the sugar is absorbed faster, leading to both fat conversion and intense blood sugar dips. While many nutritionists tout the advantages of "juicing," a growing number are criticizing this so-called health trend as unhealthy for precisely this reason: Juicing results in a diet of concentrated fructose and water.
      • But not all fresh fruit is on the rise. Grapefruit consumption has dropped drastically. The FDA published a warning that grapefruit can have dangerous interactions with a wide variety of prescription drugs--especially statins and blood pressure meds--that are widely consumed by seniors. With the Silent Generation and Boomers both being the number one fans of grapefruit and number one users of statins, grapefruit consumption in 2017 dropped to 1.9 pounds per person, a drastic drop from the 9 pounds per person in 1976.

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart7

    • More businesses are springing up to help people make friends, from apps to co-living spaces to professional matchmakers. Many of these options aim to connect the lonely through shared interests, but like with dating, it’s up to the users to deepen an initial meeting into a lasting friendship. (The Washington Post)
      • NH: Need a ride to the airport? Call an Uber. Need a friend? Order one on your phone. A new market is emerging for apps that claim to help the lonely by matching people with potential friends.
      • Where these apps are coming from is no surprise. Study after study has shown that America, as well as the rest of the globe, is becoming a lonelier place (see also “All the Lonely People”). A recent YouGov poll found that 27% of Millennials say they have “no close friends” and that 30% “say they always or often feel lonely.” Millennials are the most likely to report being lonely; followed by Xers and then by Boomers. (See the first graph below).
      • While Millennials are less geographically mobile than earlier generations of youth, they often relocate to cities where friends are hard to make and they tend to take fewer risks in reaching out to strangers. Most importantly, a hands-on sense of community is important to Millennials. They crave it in their family lives, in their social media, and in their politics.
      • The rise of communal co-living among Millennials has been one answer to create a sense of home, as well as to save money (see also “Communal Co-Living Catching On”). But young adults have also looked to fill the void through Millennials’ favorite means, technology. Take online dating for example (see also “Love at First Site”). While Gen Xers where embarrassed to find love through online sites, Millennials have flocked to apps like Tinder and Grinder. As Millennials get older, they have more and more disposable income to spend on these kinds of expenditures. The logic follows that If you can find love online, why not a best friend through the same means?
      • Interestingly, these new apps are being targeted mostly towards women--despite the fact that both women and men report equally high levels of loneliness. Maybe market research has determined that men are less likely to go to an app to look for a friend (though they seem perfectly able to go to an app to look for girl friends). Or, maybe, young men already find enough friendship online with video games (see also “It’s Game On for Esports”).

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart8

    By Some Measures, Millennials Are In Even Worse Health Than Gen-Xers. NewsWire - Nov 19 chart9

    DID YOU KNOW?

    I’m Just Here for the Esports. In recent years, esports has carved out a small but growing corner of American higher education. Today, a record 128 colleges fund a varsity esports program. (See: “It’s Game On for Esports.”) For some, this isn’t just a novel way to boost recruitment; it’s a survival strategy. Pennsylvania’s Harrisburg University, for instance, has only 750 students, but has become one of the biggest names in esports since launching its scholarship program in 2018. The annual budget of its esports teams is estimated to be $2 million. Esports is Harrisburg’s only varsity sport, which means, as president Eric Darr told The Atlantic, “we don’t have anything splitting our attention.” The school’s top rival is the also-tiny Maryville University in St. Louis. In esports, the traditional logic of college athletics is reversed: Small schools like Harrisburg and Maryville reign supreme in competitions, while big names with blockbuster NCAA programs—like Ohio State—are the underdogs.