DKS/ANF/WMT/TJX: Notable Divergences


May 18, 2010





Each of these four names seems to have a mind of their own in trading off balance sheet for P&L. The key takeaway from earnings season thus far is that the volatility of these financial rates of change is picking up.


TJX: By far and away the best, with a 23% spread between sales and inventories. But the off price channel – led by TJX has just put up what is likely to be the peak. Companies can’t maintain peak margins and double-digit sales/inventory spread while margins are near peak.


DKS: Tricky Dicky pulled a nice little ‘about face’ and swung back into the upper right hand quadrant after falling off the wagon in 4Q. One thing I like about layering the different trajectories over one another is that you can see the relative volatility in financials. Interesting how DKS looks more like WMT as it relates to P&L/Balance Sheet volatility than it does TJX or ANF.


ANF: Woof. Seriously. It’s so rare that a company has a few quarters of clearing inventory, and drops right back into Quadrant 2. That’s a VERY dangerous place to be. I’m trying to balance 1) higher SG&A + Int’l growth commitment against 2) lower capex guidance at a time when the dollar is strengthening. The delta in capex reduction can’t be explained away entirely by fx. I still think this could be a big stock – but I don’t mind being late on it. In fact – unless answering the question noted above gives me any particular insight, I’m more inclined on the other side.


WMT: Ironically, the all-powerful Wal-Mart didn’t look so hot here – relatively speaking. The quarter looked good and the sales/inventory spread looks good relative to margins -- but the latest data point is a negative change on the margin.


DKS/ANF/WMT/TJX: Notable Divergences - 5 18 10 Agg SIGMA





- With excess supply of big box real estate in the market, landlords are joining the trend of downsizing in retail by sub-dividing existing space in an effort to drive occupancy. Demand from businesses that can fill stores left behind by Linens ‘N Things, Circuit City, and G.I. Joe’s has not been sufficient to offset excess capacity. The upside of this recent trend is that with new construction still limited by tight financing, smaller format concepts will have more options for growth then may have otherwise been available only months ago.   


- One of our favorite discount luxury online retailers – Gilt Groupe is now expanding into home goods again exhibiting the lack of scalability of this model (recall they recently offered gourmet salami). This is further evidence suggesting that sourcing higher-end apparel continues to be a challenge as luxury players seek to meet increased demand at traditionally legacy channels.


- With the reporting of the first positive same store sales result in 15 quarters, Lowe’s noted that the results were in some part driven by extremely favorable weather conditions and the government subsidized “cash for appliance” programs.  With that said, the trend did improve within the quarter, with a notable pick up in bigger ticket items such as kitchen and bath.  Overall, 21 of 23 regions posted positive sales growth for the quarter.





Estee Lauder to Buy Smashbox Cosmetics - The Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. has gone Hollywood, nabbing the photo-studio-born makeup company Smashbox Beauty Cosmetics Inc. in a bid to move deeper into the fast-growing, alternative retail channel and gain entrée into the digital media space. <>


College Hiring Sees Small Uptick - The prospects for new college graduates looking for fashion and retail jobs are improving. Small fashion firms have reduced payrolls and have brought in unpaid interns to take up the slack. Despite some 290,000 jobs created in April in areas ranging from manufacturing to professional services, the unemployment rate for the wholesale and retail trade was 9.5 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.According to the 2010 job outlook from the National Association of College and Employers, firms plan to hire 5.3% more new college graduates in 2009-2010 than in 2008-2009. That’s the first positive news since October 2008. <>


Report: Young Consumers Shift Brand Loyalty in College Years - Nike is still clearly the brand to beat among younger consumers, but support for the brand wanes as teens move into their college years and then builds again as they age. Conversely, Adidas picks up steam with the college and post-college consumer. While Nike finished with a BSI score well over 700 points overall, both genders, and the 13-17 yr olds, it dropped to 683 among the 18-24 year old group. Adidas has a solid hold on the second spot finishing nearly 100 points higher than Under Armour in the #3 spot. <>


Li & Fung Ltd., the world’s biggest supplier for retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., has $1 billion to buy other companies, President Bruce Rockowitz said.

A bond sale earlier this month boosted its acquisition fund, Rockowitz said in Hong Kong today. The company sold $400 million of 10-year bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. Li & Fung, founded in southern China in 1906, has announced a sales target of $20 billion this year, a 49 percent jump from 2009, when revenue fell for the first time since the Hong Kong- based company first sold shares to the public in 1992. Acquiring rivals, and a new contract to supply Wal-Mart, will enable it to reach the sales goal, the company said.  <>


Target Ups its Electronics and Video Games Department - Target stores are rolling out a new open layout with 30% more space for its electronics and video games department. U.S. video games hardware, software and accessories sales in 2009 generated revenue at nearly $19.66 bn, according to The NPD Group. The revamped layout, expected to be completed by June, will feature product accessible fixtures, organized by platforms and game genres. In addition, many stores will also have Learning Centers and Trial Stations.  <>


Indian Ban on Raw Cotton Exports - Indian apparel manufacturers feel the country’s ban on raw cotton exports and abundant supplies of cotton at lower prices, combined with the global economic recovery, will help clothing exports rise about 10% this year. Elsewhere in the region, however, India’s protectionism is having a decidedly negative effect, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, textile-producing countries that are heavily reliant on comparatively cheap Indian cotton. Indian farmers and merchants, meanwhile, are angry they have been shut off from their international buyers. On April 19, India indefinitely suspended exports of raw cotton shipments in a bid to bring down domestic prices and ensure there was sufficient cotton for manufacturers here. The ban has hit the countries that buy large quantities of cotton from India, which became the world’s second-largest cotton exporter after adopting genetically modified strains of the plant. In the first two months of the year, it replaced the U.S. as the biggest exporter of cotton after China bought in 265,460 tonnes of Indian-grown cotton, a rise of 1,694 percent from a year earlier. <>


Gap to Open Stores in Italy - Gap Inc. revealed plans to open the first Gap and Banana Republic stores in Italy this year. The stores will be located in central Milan, next to one another in Corso Vittorio Emanuele, one of the busiest shopping streets in the city. Next year, the company is expected to roll out stores in Rome and other Italian venues. The company is expanding its presence globally and, in light of its strong customer base in London and Paris. Gap brand has stores in Japan, the U.K., France and Ireland, while Banana Republic has units in Japan and the U.K.  <>


Lucy Activewear Hires a Nike Exec as its President - Former Nike Training global director of business development Shaz Kahng is the new president of Lucy Activewear, a brand owned by consumer brand manufacturer VF Corp. Kahng will oversee all aspects of the Lucy brand, including e-commerce and marketing. <>


Coach and Target Settle Case - Coach Inc., Target Corp. and LF USA reached a settlement Monday that ended an infringement lawsuit the accessories maker brought last year. Court records said the suit, filed in U.S. District Circuit in Manhattan, was voluntarily dismissed. “We are pleased to have reached a settlement that is satisfactory to all parties,” said Todd Kahn, Coach senior vice president and general counsel. Coach accused Target of selling handbags that infringed on the trade dresses of its Patchwork and Ergo designs.<>


Sears Picks New Digital Agents - Publicis Groupe's Digitas has won digital media planning and buying duties for Sears Holdings after a review, according to sources. Annual spending on the account is estimated at $30 million. <>


African Growth & Opportunity Act Missing the Mark - Ten years after the African Growth & Opportunity Act was enacted, it is clear the extension of duty free benefits alone were not enough to build a vibrant, regional apparel industry. When the agreement known as AGOA extended duty free preferences to more than two dozen eligible African countries, it was hailed as a positive model for linking trade with aid for developing regions. Apparel producers, enticed by the duty free benefits the act extended, shifted production into the region. In 2005, five years after AGOA was enacted, it looked like the initiative was on track to be a success as the region’s share of U.S. apparel imports doubled. But in the intervening years, AGOA’s slice of the U.S. market has shrunk back to pre-agreement levels. In February 2010, AGOA countries claimed a 1.12 percent share of U.S. apparel imports, up only slightly from 2000 when the region shipped 1.02 percent of apparel to the U.S. At their peak in 2004, AGOA imports represented a 2.24 percent share of the U.S. apparel market. <>



In this High vs. Low Society that we live in, participation levels in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program are soaring.  The higher end consumer, meanwhile, continues to come back strongly.


Since late 2009, Keith has referred periodically to the participation levels in the USDA’s Food Stamps Program.  Each time, it was noted that the percentage of the population participating in the program has increased drastically since Bernanke took the helm at the Federal Reserve.  February’s data shows that almost 40 million people, or one-in-eight Americans, received food stamps (chart 1, below).  While this is a staggering number, it could grow even without deterioration in the consumer; researchers are commenting that one-in-three people eligible for the program are not taking advantage of the benefits.


For context, in November 2008 we wrote a note entitled, “EYE ON POVERTY: FOOD STAMPS”, that discussed the number of participants in the program exceeding 30 million for the first time.  According to USDA forecasts, the number of participants will increase to 40.5 million by the end of this fiscal year, ended September, and will grow to 43.3 million in 2011.  New highs have been set, monthly, since December 2008.  Interestingly, as Director of Hedgeye’s Retail Team, Eric Levine pointed out in a recent note, the sequential growth in monthly Food Stamps Program participants is slowing for now (chart 2).  Levine points out that this is “marginally good news for those concerned about the state of the U.S. consumer”.  However, over the longer term, should our Q2 theme, Inflation’s V-Bottom play out and high unemployment levels persist, the situation could continue to deteriorate.  As unemployment benefits run out for some of America’s jobless, it seems clear that a larger proportion of eligible people will take advantage of the program.


At the end of the day, numbers don’t lie; people do.  Since March 2009 the S&P500, fuelled by the Fed-sponsored Piggy Banker Spread, has shot up almost 70% (taking into account recent market declines).  From March 2009 to February 2010, the number of people enrolled in the Food Stamps program increased 20%.  Our view on Inflation’s V-Bottom continues to be confirmed by the data (see the Early Look from May 11) and will only serve to exacerbate the situation lower and middle class families face with the stagnant employment outlook.  The employment outlook, along with mounting inflation, is taking a toll.  We have said it before; many of those on Main Street are not experiencing the “recovery” that has bolstered Wall Street.” 


Rory Green



TELLING FOOD STAMPS DATA - 5 11 2010 9 44 59 AM


TELLING FOOD STAMPS DATA - 5 11 2010 1 21 39 PM


SJM has already dented LVS’s VIP share with its junket push and now, LVS may be feeling the Mass pinch as its market share has plummeted in May.


We’ve written quite a bit about SJM’s big push for junket share, and it has indeed paid off – if market share and no margins was their goal.  Higher commission rates paid to junkets and the company’s unique “franchise” structure that offloads more of the risk and reward to the operators have contributed to expanding share.  As can be seen in the chart below, SJM’s Mass share has also increased but not nearly at the rate of VIP's.




It’s hard to be too pessimistic on any Macau operator when the market is growing at a potential 85% clip (in May).  However, for a variety of reasons, LVS is losing share, which could be an issue once the market inevitably slows.




We do know that the Venetian junkets were directly in the sight line of SJM which partially explains the sharp degradation in LVS’s VIP share.  We also believe Encore took a big chunk out of LVS in May, contributing to a 5% sequential drop in share in May month-to-date relative to April.  If SJM is serious and successful in its Mass Market aggression, LVS’s properties could be most at risk given their higher Mass mix. 


SJM maintains third party operating arrangements at many of its properties.  On its quarterly conference call this morning, SJM discussed the opportunity for the satellite properties to cultivate a Mass business.  They believe they’ve only scratched the surface.  We’ll see over the coming months but the opportunity certainly seems to be there.

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Ugly Chart of the Day

Position: Long Germany (EWG); Short France (EWQ)


We’ve been on the tape warning of mounting inflation pressures in the UK.  Earlier in the month the UK Producer Price Index for April measured +13.1% on an annual basis. Today, the UK Consumer Price Index for April registered +3.7% year-over-year, up from March’s rise of 3.4%. 


For context, we’ve charted UK CPI versus Eurozone CPI below. Within the Eurozone (16), only Greece (at +4.7%) has a higher inflation rate than the UK; and among the EU states (27), only Romania and Hungary (in addition to Greece) have higher inflation rates than the UK, at 4.2% and 5.7% respectively.  


Although inflation has surpassed the top-side limit of 3% set by the Bank of England for the last two months, Governor Mervyn King downplayed the rate as “temporary” in a statement today, citing “substantial spare capacity.” We’ll take the other side of the trade, namely that rising inflation is not just a near-term issue in the UK.  As Keith has noted in his work, “US sovereign debt problems are only different than Western European ones in one key factor – timing. The darkest days for professional US politicians who perpetuate a fiat currency policy are coming.” Alongside the US, we’d add the UK to our theme of Duration Mismatch. Stay tuned.


Matthew Hedrick



Ugly Chart of the Day      - uk CPI



“The increase in our net profit by 451% during the first quarter of 2010 and the increase in our Adjusted EBITDA by 155% show that we are obtaining positive results from the past year’s initiatives to expand capacity as well as to increase efficiency and operating leverage throughout our casino portfolio. While overall market conditions have been favourable, the fact that we have increased our market share testifies to the fundamental strength and excellent positioning of our business. We look forward to excellent prospects for the Group during the rest of the year.”

- Dr. Ambrose So, Chief Executive Officer of SJM Holdings Limited



  • Group gaming revenue of during 1Q2010 was HK$12,683 million, an increase of 74% from HK$7,280 million 
  • Adjusted EBITDA was HK$1,096 million, an increase of 155% from HK$430 million in the year earlier quarter
  • Profit attributable to owners was HK$760 million, an increase of 451% y-o-y increase from HK$138 million
  • SJM's gaming revenues accounted for 31.9% of Macau’s casino gaming market during 1Q2010, as compared with 28.8% 1Q09.
    • Group’s VIP gaming revenue was HK$8,282 million, a 104% y-o-y increase
    • Mass market gaming revenue was HK$4,122 million, an increase of 39% from HK$2,974 million
    • Slot machine revenue was HK$279 million, an increase of 11% from HK$250 million
  • 1Q2010 average table and slot counts:
    • VIP: 411 (first quarter 2009: 206)
    • Mass: 1,361 (first quarter 2009: 1,163)
    • Slots: 4,614 (first quarter 2009: 3,920)
  • 1Q2010 Group VIP chip sales were HK$288.5 billion (first quarter 2009: HK$140.8 billion), and the VIP gaming hold percentage (before commissions and discounts) was 2.87% (first quarter 2009: 2.88%).
  • Breakout of revenues and EBITDA for 1Q2010:
    • Grand Lisboa: HK$3.165BN and HK$508MM
    • Other self promoted casinos: HK$2.955BN and HK$240MM
    • Third party operated casinos: $6.563BN and HK$270MM
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins for the group were 8.6%, but would be 14.8% if calculated on a comparable basis to US properties.  If the Group’s revenue is further adjusted to include the net revenue of self-promoted casinos plus the net revenue contribution (after reimbursed expenses) of the Group’s third party-promoted casinos and slot halls, the Group’s Adjusted EBITDA margin would be 26.0%.
  • Grand Lisboa Hotel achieved average occupancy rate of 72.2% and average room rate of HK$1,924 per night.


  • The 1Q2010 results show the benefits of the new agreements they have in place with their junkets.
  • Casino Oceanus is still in its ramp up state, but they are pleased with their results YTD
  • They are going to start the renovation of Casino Jai Alai later this year
  • Completing the installation of a new table and player tracking system at Casino Grand Lisboa
  • Considering the development of a site in Cotai and their site next to the Portuguese school, but have made no decision so far


  • Oceanus results so far?
    • Will do it midyear, just can’t do it this yet since they haven’t separated all accounts
  • They are considering developing on Cotai – and are waiting to see if they will proceed before making a dividend payment
  • Why doesn’t the sum of the Grand Lisboa, other owned casinos and satellites equal the total group EBITDA?
    • Because it doesn’t include the Grand Lisbao hotel  (36MM) and Ponte 16 (34MM) and some other investments (8MM). Those breakouts are already including corporate expense allocation.
  • Interest expense was $56MM
  • Interest income was $10.3 MM
  • D&A was 266MM
  • How much of the other owned casino EBITDA was from Oceanus?
    • Casino Lisboa is contributing more than Oceanus at this point
  • Moved to 3% and 5% franchise deals, average is 4.1%- some of that mix depends on the mix of VIP and Mass business
  • Impact of Encore?
    • Doesn’t appear to have any impact on their business.  May be taking share from other more ‘related’ operators
  • April is quite good and first half of May is even better because of Golden Week. They have no complaints of their market share. May trends should soften in the back half.
  • Margins are always higher in non-gaming since you don’t have the taxes.
  • Is this level of EBITDA sustainable?
    • It's been an exceptional quarter for the market.  They have been anticipating a softening of the VIP market but haven't seen it yet.  So they are unsure how much the softening will be offset by seasonally better trends.
  • Third party operated casino strategy is to encourage those properties to promote their casinos.  They didn't hold as well in their owned casinos, which is why the Satellite casinos appear to be growing faster.
  • The third party casinos have begun to realize that there is margin in the Mass now that they are "emancipated" to run their business as they wish, and the results reflect them growing that business
  • Portuguese school site is still more of a priority over developing the Cotai site.
  • Margins going forward at Grand Lisboa?
    • They are looking for margin improvement. They have been continuously doing that.
  • Satellite properties will benefit from their discovery of Mass business. The new contracts encourage them to market their own properties.
  • Jai Alai renovation capex: 100-200 MM $HK
  • Their Adjusted EBITDA was up 30% from the 4th Q
  • Table cap is for the next three years and by the time they open anything in Cotai it would be expired - since they haven't started construction.  After 3 years, there will be 3-5% annual table growth. Won't do anything without the government's blessing.
  • Why are they expecting a slowdown?
    • Money supply in China is really loose now. But as high-end individuals are less able to forecast their growth, they will be less likely to play.  Government has suppressed the housing market already and the stock market performance has also been poor, so it should affect play levels.
  • Expect that their market can stay at current levels or improve.  Will not open new tables or close tables, but will better yield manage their tables. Were fortunate enough to increase tables late last year before table caps went into place.  There has been no talks of reducing any concessionaire's tables.
  • Run rate expenses of Grand Lisbao? There has been no increase due to labor or marketing costs. Any margin pressure is a result of mix shift towards VIP.
  • Maintenance Capex? It's a lot lower than Venetian. It's only HK$200-250MM for them and HK$700-800MM in total capex for the year.

Angry Shorts

“When anger rises, think of the consequences.”



One of the best parts about being a risk manager in global macro is that there is no real information “edge” that my competitors can glean from getting winks and nods from the old boy network. The edge in global macro resides in having a repeatable research process that can quantify the crowd’s behavior.


The vaunted “1 on 1” is one of the most overpriced research products in our business. It being priced at a premium is the output of a self destructing sell-side business model whose “ideas” continue to be discounted as lagging indicators. As a result, there is an analytical void at both the sell-side supermarkets and the media that perpetuates their consensus leanings that you can capitalize on.


Without giving away the secret sauce manufactured here at our risk management boutique, I can tell you that we have learned a lot from neuroscientists like Dr. Richard Peterson in recent years and have found some very effective ways to quantify sentiment. This becomes quite handy, particularly when you can identify what we call the Angry Shorts in a crowded global macro position.


As a practical matter, we look for the appearances of key words and phrases in mainstream media and then overlay it with a multi-factor risk management model to come up with trading ranges in markets. Yesterday, the words “euro” and “parity” had what I considered a statistically significant reading.


That’s why I wrote in yesterday’s strategy note that “our call this morning will not be to pile on to the “parity call” that has quickly become the most deserved and consensus trade in global macro. Both our immediate and intermediate term duration targets for the Euro are converging in the $1.21-1.22 range. Whenever these durations converge, my own mathematical prejudice is to cover my short position.”


In other words, the timing of my calls is directly correlated to the math. I don’t wake-up every morning and lick my finger hoping the wind gives me the signal. I wake up to a new daily set of data - most of it is quantitative; some of it is qualitative; but all of it needs to be quantified and risk managed.


As a practical matter, the next step is putting the outputs of our models on the tape. Unlike the conflicted and compromised sell-side, we do that real-time, every day. In the Virtual Portfolio (we don’t believe in running a prop desk in front of, beside, or behind our clients), you can see all of our positions on a marked-to-market basis. We are either right or wrong and you should be the first to remind us of as much. We are accountable.


Yesterday, as it tested and tried our immediate term oversold level of $1.22, we capitalized on some Angry Shorts in the Euro and made the following two moves: 

  1. 1210PM (EST) – we bought oil as it was immediate term oversold
  2. 1219PM (EST) – we shorted the US Dollar as it was immediate term overbought 

Now the decision to buy oil was immediate term in nature (3 weeks or less), whereas the decision to short the US Dollar was intermediate term in nature (3 months or more). Oil is now broken, across all 3 of our core investment durations (TRADE, TREND, and TAIL), but has immediate term upside to $76.17/barrel. We were already long some oil going into the day, so we didn’t get angry about it; we waited for our price, and bought more with the expectation to keep a trade a TRADE.


On the US Dollar Index position, I laid out our intermediate term thesis on the Duration Mismatch between the Euro and the US Dollar in my strategy note from last Thursday titled Fiat Fools. Without re-hashing that in full, the bottom line is this: US sovereign debt problems are only different than Western European ones in one key factor – timing. The darkest days for professional US politicians who perpetuate a fiat currency policy are coming.


Yes, the Euro-trashing by Trichet has been voted on in a very public (marked-to-market) way. One TRILLION is a lot of French Fiat that has created what Mr. Macro Market sees well ahead of a lying Spanish politician. That’s why the Euro has lost -18% of its value since November. While it may be “new” to the money honey at CNBC, it’s not new to the real-time risk managers of global macro. Neither will it be “new” news to anyone who has studied basic calculus when the USA gets its turn.


If you are looking for the simpleton version of the math on the topic of US debt, deficits, and unfunded liabilities, read “Comeback America” by David Walker. I am in the middle of reading it right now. Since Walker was the comptroller general and head of the GAO (General Accountability Office) of the United States of America, his view of the actual numbers versus the Made-Off ones is quite revealing.


I’ll spend more time on what Walker calls the “Financial Hole” ($56 TRILLION US Dollars) in the coming weeks and months, but for now let me leave you with something that can help you help your friends get really angry about – a TRILLION dollars…


Whether its Euros or US Dollars, as Walker wrote, “think about that word, trillion”… “if you can”…


“The $1.42 trillion deficit translates to about $2.6 million of debt accumulated each minute, $160 million an hour, and $3.8 billion a day.”


Them be some liabilities that Americans are going to be getting really angry about within 6 to 9 months. Make sure you are short the US Dollar before that anger management becomes consensus.


My immediate term support and resistance lines for the SP500 are now 1109 and 1144, respectively. I remain short SPY and we will be hosting our Monthly Macro Call this afternoon (email if you’d like to participate).


Best of luck out there today,



Angry Shorts - DOLLAR

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