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Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale.

CHART OF THE DAY: We're Not Out of the Woods Yet - z22

If you think the global economy has magically recovered into Quad 2 just because of “Phase 1” deal (or no deal), then you’re not paying attention to what our analysis has highlighted as the most relevant leading indicator to track with respect to swings in the global industrial cycle – i.e. Japanese Machine Tool Orders, which slowed -190bps to a four-month low of -37.4% YoY in OCT. We’re not out of the woods yet – particularly with respect to anything tethered to still-slowing Chinese demand.

CHART OF THE DAY: We're Not Out of the Woods Yet - 1