In this latest issue of my weekly podcast, I examine the ongoing (if decelerating) price advances in equities along with the steepening of the yield curve. All this, for now, is welcome news for the Fed--which at last finds interest-rate futures agreeing with them. The market verdict: There is no need for further fed funds rate cuts as far as the eye can see. Meanwhile, the slowing trend in the real economy continues to grind on. At home, nowcast forecasters are pulling down their Q4 GDP estimates all the way to +1.0% or less. And FactSet last week announced that Q4 S&P 500 earnings are likely to register another YoY decline--for the fourth quarter in a row. Abroad, the biggest story remains (as ever) the fate of the "Phase One" trade deal between the U.S. and China, with Trump on Friday announcing that he has not promised to roll back existing tariffs and may not, in fact, seal any deal before the end of the year. In global politics, the biggest single story is BoJo taking on all comers in next month's general election. Thus far, the odds of a Johnson victory remain very favorable--and his chances of winning an official Brexit in the House of Commons by February of next year remain a coin flip. Here at home, the big political news was the entry of Michael Bloomberg into the Democratic primary. Elizabeth Warren no doubt welcomes Bloomberg into the race, while Joe Biden has every reason to grumble. Finally, I discuss a recent NewsWire story about declining U.S. attendance at religious services--and of Americans' declining identification with any organized religion. What's driving the decline? How is it impacting politics? And what special challenges does the decline pose to Democrats?
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